rangers lightning playoffs 2015

It wasn’t easy, and it wasn’t pretty, but the New York Rangers survived against the Washington Capitals, and are now set to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Conference Finals. Although the Lightning finished second in the Atlantic, many pegged them to move on to the Conference Finals. Seeding doesn’t matter at this point though.

The Lightning took all three matchups from the Rangers in convincing fashion during the regular season. But they played all three games in a two-week span in November-December. The last game was played on December 1. The Rangers didn’t have Ryan McDonagh for two of those games. They dressed three guys that aren’t on the team anymore. Tampa Bay didn’t have Victor Hedman for two of those games. Those games were almost 7 months ago.

That said, the Lightning are unlike any team the Rangers have faced this postseason. They dispatched Crosby and Ovechkin, but the supporting casts for those stars were sub-par at best. The Lightning have the star power in Steven Stamkos, and tremendous scoring depth to complement it.

Even Strength – Forecheck/Breakouts

The Lightning and the Rangers play very similar systems at even strength. Both John Cooper and Alain Vigneault have their teams running an overload 1-2-2 forecheck, but will mix in a 2-1-2 as well. In the defensive zone, they mix zone and overload coverage depending on puck location. On special teams, they run a 1-3-1 power play and rotate between a diamond and box penalty kill depending on opposition setup.

In terms of breakouts, the Lightning and the Rangers are also very similar (as are most teams), running four basic breakouts. However, the Lightning do not try stretch passes from blue line to blue line to create rush opportunities. The Lightning also don’t have a player like Chris Kreider, whom the Rangers have a set play designed for:

rangers senators 2015

The Kreider play, Stepan with the puck outlets to Kreider off the boards for a chance off the rush.

To defend against these types of play, expect Lightning to have their first man in pressure the puck carrier, but have more of a staggered “first-two” behind him. One will keep an eye on that potential outlet pass –be it to Kreider or from blue line to blue line– while the other will pressure in-zone passing lanes. The trick here will be to catch the Lightning pushing for offense, instead of defending the breakout. They are good, but they are young.

Even Strength – Offensive Zone

In the offensive zone, both teams run similar styles: The strong side overload. This puts four guys near the boards to maintain puck possession, with the fifth (weak-side defenseman) staying around the mid-point. This creates passing lanes, but is also designed to limit the opposition’s time with the puck, forcing turnovers and maintaining zone time.

Offensive zone strong side overload

Strong side overload, weak side left open

The weakness is the weak side, as the defense can transition to a rush should the puck free itself from the wall. Both teams encourage defensemen to join the play, so maintaining puck support in the offensive zone is critical.

Even Strength – Defensive Zone

Again, both teams play a similar style in the defensive zone, but the Rangers take the aggressiveness one step further. While both play that overload style described above on defense, the Rangers will switch to man coverage when the puck dips below the goal line. This is especially effective at forcing turnovers in the high risk area, in which the Rangers can transition to offense rather quickly. This happens quite often, and leads to odd-man rushes and controlled zone entries:

rangers senators 2015

Controlled zone entry following a rush.

The Bolts are going to need to take advantage of their overall team speed and draw the Rangers out of position when they switch to man coverage. This is something they’ve done before, most recently by Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson:

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Man coverage, out of position

Kucherov forced Kevin Klein into a turnover behind the net, which also trapped Ryan McDonagh behind the net. Derek Stepan was sitting watching it all develop while Johnson snuck in (offscreen). Kucherov hit Johnson with a pass, and Henrik Lundqvist had no chance on this goal. This is the type of pressure that will make the Bolts successful in this series.

Powerplay

On the powerplay, the Rangers run a 1-3-1, which opens up passing lanes and creative options. With Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle manning the point, the opposition needs to respect the pass and the shot, running the powerplay from the mid-point instead of along the boards. This creates options.

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Options.

The man in front also creates havoc, allowing these passing options to exist. The problem the Rangers run into is that they are perhaps too structured on the powerplay, which leads to static players and little movement. A powerplay that doesn’t move is easy to defend and exploit. I was looking for a good example of this, but it happens regularly with frustrating results.

The Bolts run the same 1-3-1 style, but like the Caps, try to get the puck across to Stamkos on the off-wing. Stammer had 13 PPGs (of his 43 goals) on the powerplay, most from that Ovechkin area on the ice. Kucherov had 13 PPA’s, most from the Nick Backstrom spot on the other off-wing.

While the Bolts’ powerplay doesn’t revolve around Stammer, he is their greatest weapon. Ex-Ranger Ryan Callahan (10) and center Tyler Johnson (8) give the Bolts finishing options. This is a unit that can be lethal, and it went 3-for-11 (27.2%) against the Rangers in those three games.

Penalty Kill

On the penalty kill, the Rangers like to pressure the puck carrier, especially up high with Rick Nash. This creates chances for odd-man rushes down the other end, which has led to Nash’s four shorties this year. Aside from pressuring the puck carrier, the Rangers generally run a hybrid penalty kill, which depends on setup and puck location.

To counter the aggressive penalty kill, passes need to be crisp and be out of the reach of players that jump the passing lane. Kris Letang did that pretty well for the Penguins:

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Nash tries to jump the passing lane.

The pass was just out of Nash’s reach, which set up a temporary 4-on-2, and led to a goal.

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Double-edged sword of aggressiveness.

The problem here for the Lightning is that they don’t have a Kris Letang. Victor Hedman is certainly capable, as is Anton Stralman, but they are no Letang. If the Rangers force Tampa to run the play from up top instead of Kucherov’s off-wing, can the Bolts get those passes through?

The Numbers

It’s no secret that the Rangers are not a possession darling. But let’s break these numbers down a bit and look at the context. First, a direct comparison of their 82 game numbers (even strength, score adjusted):

NYR TBL
USAT/FF Percent 50.2% 53.8%
USAT/FF Against per 60 40.4 35.3
USAT/FF For per 60 40.7 41.1
SPSV%/PDO 101.7 100.8
SV% 92.8% 91.5%
SH% 8.9% 9.3%

The Lightning are the better possession team overall, generating more attempts for and allowing fewer attempts against, over the course of the full season. It’s not even close actually. Both teams have been aided by an unusually high SH%, but that’s likely because the Rangers’ offensive focus is on the rush, while the Bolts are just loaded with talent that can score at even strength. Very few question high SH% when it comes with a high rate of puck possession though.

During the playoffs, the roles have reversed though (even strength, score adjusted):

NYR TBL
USAT/FF Percent 49.8% 46.7%
USAT/FF Against per 60 40.3 36.9
USAT/FF For per 60 40.0 32.3
SPSV%/PDO 99.6 102.1
SV% 94.2% 93.5%
SH% 5.4% 8.6%

Both teams are victims of small sample sizes (13 games for TBL, 12 for NYR), but the Rangers have a much lower SH% than they did in the regular season. They got away from their rush-based attack in both series, as Pittsburgh and Washington clogged the neutral zone and forced dump and chase hockey. Jon Cooper was certainly taking notes.

Key Matchups

  • Ben Bishop vs. the Blueshirts’ offense. His career numbers against the Rangers: 8-0, 1.49, .946, 2 shutouts
  • Ryan McDonagh/Dan Girardi vs. Steven Stamkos
  • Marc Staal vs. the Tyler Johnson line
  • Victor Hedman vs. Rick Nash
  • Anton Stralman vs. Chris Kreider

The Rangers will win IF:

  • Henrik Lundqvist outduels Ben Bishop.
  • The Rangers can solve Bishop and score more than two goals per game.
  • The Rangers defense forces Tampa’s bottom-six to beat them.

The Bolts will win IF:

  • Bishop remains unbeatable against the Rangers.
  • The Bolts force the Rangers to ditch the rush game and play dump and chase hockey.
  • The top-six pressure the Rangers into defensive miscues.

This is going to be a fun series to watch. I expect both teams to play a lot of high-event hockey, so basically that means you should expect 1-0 games. Buckle up folks, puck drop is tomorrow at 1pm.

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