rangers capitals 2015

The Rangers are headed to Washington with the series tied at one a piece, the same way the Rangers headed to Pittsburgh last round. However, there was a lot more confidence heading to Pittsburgh than D.C., and I have to admit it’s not hard to see why. The Caps have found ways to take it to the Rangers over extended periods of time. The Penguins had one short burst of Sidney Crosby dominance, but they were never really taken seriously by the fans.

Tonight, the Rangers will look to continue their winning ways in Game Three, hopefully sparing us a few heart attacks in the process. But there was a lot to absorb after the first two games, some of which can’t really be detailed in goal breakdowns.

  • In Game One, the Caps really took it to the Rangers for the first two periods. The Rangers weren’t bad, but they weren’t playing their game. They allowed the Caps to physically abuse them. When that happens, the Rangers can’t get their offense going. They didn’t generate much offensively in those two periods, and it’s because the Blueshirts allowed the Caps to dictate the pace.

  • That pace, by the way, is a slow, methodical pace that Barry Trotz likes to play. These aren’t your run-and-gun Caps anymore. They play defense, they try to outwork you, and they limit you defensively. The difference, though, is that unlike Trotz’s Nashville teams, this Washington team has the offensive skill to complement that defensive system. If you allow the Caps to dictate the pace, they will make you pay.
  • The Rangers actually need that run-and-gun style in order to be successful. The Caps have top-end skill, but they don’t have offensive depth to match the Rangers. New York has three lines that can score, and as long as matched up properly, can score at any given time. Rush based attacks work best, and we saw it on display in Game Two. Braden Holtby is the only reason why the game didn’t get out of hand in the first period of Game Two.
  • Game Three is likely to be a combination of what we saw in the first two periods of Game One and the first period of Game Two. We will see some spurts of fast paced action. We will see some spurts of heavy hitting and solid neutral zone play. Basically, we will get the third period of Game Two.
  • Many folks went into this series saying the Rangers had an advantage in net. Henrik Lundqvist’s name commands that respect, and he is certainly the better goaltender in this series (as he is in every series against teams that don’t have Carey Price). That said, Holtby has been unreal so far. It makes you wonder if he can keep this up. Jonathan Quick, a decent goaltender, rode hot flashes like these to two Cups. Holtby, in my opinion, is a better goalie than Quick. If he can harness his streak, then the Rangers might have problems.
  • I’ve been on record saying the Rangers will miss Mats Zuccarello more than most understand. The problem isn’t so much Zuccarello’s absence, and replacing him with James Sheppard, it’s the ripple effect in the lineup:
    • Martin St. Louis, who despite having a superior hockey mind, is 39 years old and his legs/hands can’t keep up anymore. He hasn’t been a net-positive possession player in a while. Asking him to replicate Zuccarello’s production, both on the scoreboard and in possession, is a tall task. That top line suffers without Zuccarello.
    • Moving St. Louis up means Jesper Fast moves to a top-nine role. The biggest question was whether he can handle that kind of scoring role. In Game Two, he showed he can, when paired with Chris Kreider and Derek Stepan. If they can continue to generate offense, then the second line will be fine.
    • J.T. Miller got bumped to the third line, as Fast’s apparent chemistry with Kreider and Stepan made that possible. He’s produced with Carl Hagelin and Kevin Hayes before.
    • James Sheppard is certainly capable of playing the defensive shutdown role in a fourth line spot. That line was pretty damn good on Saturday afternoon.
    • As good as they looked in Game Two, that’s a lot of IF’s the Rangers need to deal with.
  • What will make the transition to life without Zuccarello easier is favorable matchups. Alain Vigneault was out-coached on Thursday night, but did a much better job of matching up in Game Two. He needs to exploit Brooks Orpik’s skating, and get Kreider/Stepan/Fast out there against him whenever possible. That leaves the Rick Nash line out against Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen, a much better matchup than against Orpik and John Carlson. That leaves the Hayes line against Mike Green/Tim Gleason, and that’s a great matchup for New York.
  • Trotz gets the last change for the next two games though. He showed he can get Alex Ovechkin away from Dan Girardi/Ryan McDonagh in Game One, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t match up his defensemen properly when in possession of last change.
  • Speaking of Ovechkin, AV needs to ensure that two of Girardi, McDonagh, Kevin Klein, and/or Marc Staal are out there when Ovechkin is. We’ve seen Staal’s ability to stand up to Ovi, and that’s the kind of play the Rangers need to have to prevent him from dominating like he did on Thursday. Worth noting: McDonagh/Girardi were net-positive possession on Saturday, despite getting most of their shifts against Ovechkin.

These are two very evenly matched teams, and I honestly think it will come down to coaching and lucky bounces. This series is going to be a dog fight for the next five games. Buckle up.

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