Tonight old foes reunite. The New York Rangers and Washington Capitals have seen a lot of each other in recent years as this will be the fifth time since 2009 the teams face off in postseason play. The Rangers welcome the Caps to the Garden well rested, but with plenty of question marks thanks to an indifferent powerplay, key players underperforming, injuries, and players returning from injury. We’ll get to the Rangers in a moment. Let’s take a look at the Capitals.
Capitals at a glance
We know what the Capitals are and what they do. The Capitals are a big team with immense top end skill and are a team who look to punish you physically. Forget about Alex Ovechkin and Nick Backstrom for a moment (if that’s possible). The Capitals will try to outmuscle the Rangers with the likes of Joel Ward, Jason Chimera, Tom Wilson, and Troy Brouwer.
If you include Ovechkin, the Capitals have six players up front who stand 6-2 and above who all weigh in over 215 lbs. That’s not even accounting for guys such as Brooks Orpik and Tim Gleason on the blueline, both of whom love the physical stuff. While the Rangers can more than hold their own physically and along the boards, this isn’t the type of series they’ll want to play.
The Capitals enter the series with better possession numbers to the Rangers (52.0% against the Rangers 50.2%, even strength and score adjusted), similar shooting percentages (8.8% against 8.1% at even strength) but –for those of you that place significant worth in the statistic– are a much better team in the faceoff circle, leading the playoffs with a 56% success rate. It goes without saying that if the Rangers spend a lot of time in the penalty box, the Capitals faceoff skills combined with their (regular season) league-leading powerplay will make them pay.
Star power: The Caps have it in spades. They have the best goal scorer in the league in Ovechkin. Depending on your opinion they have one of the best three or four playmakers in the league in Backstrom, and they have an emerging star in Evgeni Kuznetsov. The blueline boasts skill with Mike Green and John Carlson. Beyond that however and it’s mainly a lot blue collar guys for the Caps.
Capital MO: The Capitals will look to hit, agitate and disrupt the Rangers from the first faceoff, and will try to negate the Rangers significant speed advantage by pressuring the puck carrier and literally running them off their game. The Caps are hoping their plan against the Islanders, which was play physical to neutralize speed, will work agains the Rangers. They will try to get their powerplay running and get it deciding games. How the Rangers handle the Caps physicality will go a long way in determining who progress to the Conference final.
Special teams
One round in and neither side has a powerplay to boast about, with the Rangers hitting at a 15% clip and the Caps at a 15.4% clip. However, the Caps had the best unit in the league in the regular season (25.3%), something the Rangers don’t want to experience too often. No one should play with fire. The Caps are yet to concede a powerplay goal in the postseason while the Rangers penalty kill ranks 7th with an 84.6% success rate. It’s fair to say the Caps would love to have this series decided by special teams.
In terms of tactics, the idea has been floated that the Rangers should shadow Ovechkin, and play a 4-on-3 game for two minutes. Dave is going to go in-depth about that soon, but suffice it to say, he staunchly disagrees. A quick preview: Penalty killing is about a team system, staying in position, and cutting off passing lanes. All four of Ovechkin’s PPG’s against the Rangers this season have been with players out of position. A PK that doesn’t get caught drifting to the puck will be just fine.
Injury assessment
The Rangers took a severe hit to their depth when Mats Zuccarello was ruled out indefinitely with an upper-body injury. Zuccarello’s puck handling skills and ability to mesh with almost whoever he plays with will be missed. His work rate and effort are an example to the rest and that aspect of his game will need to be replaced. Martin St. Louis will need to find his offensive touch, and fast.
The defense is also dealing with injuries, as Kevin Klein is finally returning after missing six weeks, and Keith Yandle has been dealing with “the sniffles.” A rusty Klein and a less-than-100% Yandle will only put a larger burden on the top four.
The Capitals don’t have any major injury concerns. Starting goaltender Braden Holtby missed a game in the first round but he has no lingering issues.
Key match-ups
- Braden Holtby vs. Henrik Lundqvist
Holtby has had a spectacular year with 41 wins and 9 shutouts. He was healthy and finally gave the Capitals a rock in net. He has a .943 save percentage in the playoffs so it’s fair to say he’s taken his regular season form into the playoffs. But having faced a mere 11 shots in the Game Seven victory over the Isles, he wasn’t always tested. The Rangers need to pepper Holtby as often as possible and get behind the Caps defense. Especially in Game One.
The Rangers have their King. Henrik Lundqvist is back to his very, stingy best. His positioning, rebound control, and composure were all impressive in the first round series against the Penguins. Lundqvist was spectacular going from post to post making several impressive recovery saves. Lundqvist has the edge in experience, even if both goalies are in fine form. If Lundqvist plays like he did in round one, it’s hard to look past the Rangers.
- Dan Girardi/Ryan McDonagh vs. Alex Ovechkin
As is always the case with the Capitals, if you can stop (or even slow down) Ovechkin you have a great chance to beat the Caps. Girardi and McDonagh relish marquee matchups and have traditionally done well 5-on-5 against Ovechkin. If the Rangers are to progress that will have to continue. Expect Alain Vigneault to get Girardi on the ice as often as possible against Ovechkin. With Girardi enjoying a strong playoffs and not playing huge minutes thus far, there should be plenty in the tank.
- Rick Nash vs. Brooks Orpik
It is strongly suggested that Alain Vigneault gets Nash out against Orpik as much as possible. Nash can handle Orpik physically and completely outmatches him for speed and skill. Orpik takes himself out of position to make a big hit, and if Nash sees a lot of Orpik, he’ll likely see a lot of opportunities. Nash could really help the Rangers by potting a few in this series. His best chance of doing that is lots of Orpik and Tim Gleason. To Orpik’s credit, he did shutdown John Tavares in Washington’s Game Seven victory against the Isles, but matching Nash against Orpik makes sense.
The Rangers will win if
- They stay disciplined. If the Rangers avoid the extracurricular stuff and keep the Capitals powerplay off the ice, it will have a huge impact on the series.
- They can neutralise Ovechkin. Of course, easier said than done. If Ovechkin isn’t throwing ten shots on net every game, if the Rangers can limit his impact on the box score, and above all, frustrate Ovechkin, the Rangers likely progress. Ovechkin isn’t strong defensively –although he isn’t unplugged controller Ovechkin anymore— so the Rangers should not be afraid to attack when he’s on the ice.
- They play a speed game. The Rangers are much faster than the Capitals. Quick outlets, try and get Holtby out of position going side to side, and try and enter the Caps zone at speed. Get behind their defense. Avoid the rough stuff by using team speed to negate any forecheck the Caps have to offer.
- The secondary scoring comes to play. The Rangers need more from Chris Kreider, more from Martin St Louis, and would benefit from consistent play from Kevin Hayes. Top to bottom, the Rangers are more skilled than the Caps. Now they need to prove it.
The Capitals will win if
- Their powerplay sees a lot of ice time. Ovechkin had 25(!) powerplay goals in the regular season. Even Troy Brouwer had more than any Ranger with 8. Four Caps players had at least 12 powerplay assists in the regular season. The Caps have a deadly PP unit.
- They use their size and physicality to good effect. The Rangers know what to expect. If Chimera and company get in the corners and impose their games on the Rangers throughout the series, it spells trouble for the Rangers.
- Evgeni Kuznetsov continues to shine. Each side has secondary players capable of stepping up but Kuznetsov may be the most skilled of them all. He’s blossoming into a star. If he continues to emerge then the Rangers will have more to worry about than just blocking Ovie-bombs.
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