Photo: Charles LeClaire/USA Today

The 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs have officially arrived. Tonight is Game One of the first round, in which the 8th seeded Pittsburgh Penguins will take on the President’s Trophy winning New York Rangers. The Rangers ran away with the Eastern Conference, setting team records with 53 wins, 113 points, and leading the league in goal differential by a wide margin. The Penguins backed into the playoffs, clinching on the last day against the worst team in history.

Just because the Penguins are slumping doesn’t mean they are a bad team. This is a team with two future Hall of Famers in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, decent forward depth, and –when healthy– a good defensive unit. Marc-Andre Fleury has shed some of his playoff demons as well. The Pens are a good matchup for the Rangers, but they are still a difficult matchup.

Even Strength

Under Alain Vigneault, the Rangers offense is primarily based on getting rush attempts, something that I covered a few weeks ago. The Blueshirts send one forechecker in deep to pressure the puck carrier, and keep two guys around the blue line to cut off passing lanes and jump on loose pucks. The two defensemen stay around the center line, ready to join in on the attack if the turnover occurs between the blue lines (pictured below). As The Suit has covered many times, this how a basic 1-2-2 forecheck works. It can be used as a trap or aggressively depending on the game situation.

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Speed/Forecheck creates turnovers.

The Penguins, under Mike Johnston have a more instinctive breakout, as detailed by Mike Colligan, which is tougher to defend. Dan Bylsma had set plays on the breakout, which were easy to anticipate as teams saw them more often. Johnston has given Kris Letang more freedom to read and react, and thus the Pens are better able to anticipate the pressure. The Pens can break the Rangers pressure with puck support and small, quick passes. This is something Kevin Power broke down very nicely at Blueshirt Banter. Both Mike’s and Kevin’s posts are very detailed and great reads.

When in the offensive zone, the Rangers run a strong-side overload, pictured below, which puts four guys near the boards to maintain puck possession, with the fifth (weak-side defenseman) staying around the mid-point. This creates passing lanes, but is also designed to limit the opposition’s time with the puck, forcing turnovers and maintaining zone time.

Offensive zone strong side overload

Offensive zone strong side overload

The flaw here is that if the Pens can get the puck to the weak side, they have the potential for an odd-man rush. This is something that has burned the Rangers in the past, as defensemen are encouraged to join the offense, and if a forward misses their assignment to rotate back to the blue line, it creates issues.

In the defensive zone, the Rangers generally play the same overload style, pressuring the puck carrier and leaving the weak-side defenseman open. When the puck gets below the goal line, the Rangers then switch to man-coverage. This, like above, pressures the puck carrier and forces turnovers. This is especially effective at forcing turnovers in the high risk area, in which the Rangers can transition to offense rather quickly. This happens quite often, and leads to odd-man rushes, the Kreider play (pictured below),

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The Kreider play, Stepan with the puck outlets to Kreider off the boards for a chance off the rush.

and controlled zone entries that open up passing lanes (pictured below).

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Trailer (Boyle) joining the rush, created off a turnover in the defensive zone.

For more on the Rangers system, be sure to check out Suit’s post here. If the Penguins are to succeed, they will need to use their high-end skill to get to open ice. Sustained zone pressure has been shown to throw the Rangers into fits, which leads to missing assignments and someone open for a prime scoring chance, seen below by the Senators.

Special Teams

On the powerplay, the Rangers run a 1-3-1, which opens up passing lanes and creative options. With Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle manning the point, the opposition needs to respect the pass and the shot, running the powerplay from the mid-point instead of along the boards. This creates options.

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Options.

The man in front also creates havoc, allowing these passing options to exist. The problem the Rangers run into is that they are perhaps too structured on the powerplay, which leads to static players and little movement. A powerplay that doesn’t move is easy to defend and exploit. I was looking for a good example of this, but it happens regularly with frustrating results.

This is why the Rangers only click at 16.8% (21st) with the man advantage. The Penguins have an 84.8% success rate on the penalty kill (3rd). Unless the Rangers move and create/attack open space, the Penguins won’t have much trouble when down a man.

On the penalty kill, the Rangers like to pressure the puck carrier, especially up high with Rick Nash. This creates chances for odd-man rushes down the other end, which has led to Nash’s four shorties this year. Aside from pressuring the puck carrier, the Rangers generally run a hybrid penalty kill, which depends on setup and puck location.

The Penguins have actually done a decent job of countering the Rangers aggressive penalty kill, and have burned the Blueshirts in the past. Letang read Nash’s intent to jump the passing lane in a game this year:

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Nash tries to jump the passing lane.

The pass was just out of Nash’s reach, which set up a temporary 4-on-2, and led to a goal.

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Double-edged sword of aggressiveness.

The problem that the Penguins will run into is that Letang is done for the season. No one on Pittsburgh’s roster has his instincts and skills to be able to execute the type of read and pass here. Without Letang, Pittsburgh’s 19.3% powerplay isn’t as strong, and New York’s 84.3% penalty kill will get a boost.

The Numbers

It’s no secret that the Rangers are not a possession darling. But let’s break these numbers down a bit and look at the context. First, a direct comparison of their 82 game numbers (even strength, score adjusted):

NYR PIT
USAT/FF Percent 50.2% 53.1%
USAT/FF Against per 60 40.4 36.3
USAT/FF For per 60 40.7 41.2
SPSV%/PDO 101.7 99.9
SV% 92.8% 92.3%
SH% 8.9% 7.6%

The Penguins are the better possession team overall, generating more attempts for and allowing fewer attempts against, over the course of the full season. The Rangers have been aided by an unusually high SH%, but that’s likely because of their offensive focus on the rush, which may make-or-break them during these playoffs.

Season long numbers are a bit misleading for the Rangers, as they played just 43 games with a fully healthy blue line that included Ryan McDonagh, Dan Boyle, and Kevin Klein. Over those 43 games, the Rangers posted much better possession (52.45%). While that is a reason to be optimistic, the recent play of the Rangers is cause for concern, as their possession has seemingly bottomed-out:

Not a good look for the Rangers.

Not a good look for the Rangers.

The Rangers have been having serious possession issues, while the Penguins have been trending up for about a month now. Possession is the better predictor of success, even over goal differential. So that is a major cause for concern.

Injuries

Many stats people are looking at the above numbers and jumping all over the Penguins upset of the Rangers. On the surface, it’s hard to argue against that. However, the Penguins are dealing with major injuries. Kris Letang is done for the year. Christian Ehrhoff, who hasn’t played since March 24, was just cleared for contact. Olli Maata is done for the year. Pascal Dupuis is done for the year. Derrick Pouliot won’t be ready for Game One.

This leaves the Penguins with a top-four of Paul Martin-Rob-Scuderi, Ben Lovejoy-Ian Cole, with Taylor Chorney as their 5D. Is that defense capable of stopping the Rangers offense? Can they break out against the Rangers forecheck? How susceptible is that group to turnovers?

For the Rangers, they got Martin St. Louis back, but Kevin Klein won’t be back for Game One. The biggest issue with Klein out is that it means Dan Girardi gets loaded with more ice time.

Key Matchups

  • Ryan McDonagh/Dan Girardi vs. Sidney Crosby
  • Marc Staal vs. Evgeni Malkin
  • Brandon Sutter vs. Rick Nash and/or Mats Zuccarello

The Rangers will win IF

  • The Penguins defense can’t react to the forecheck and speed of the Rangers.
  • They are able to shutdown Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who represent the majority of the Penguins offense.
  • They overload the Penguins in the defensive zone, taking advantage of minimal wing depth without Dupuis to force turnovers and take advantage of the depleted blue line.
  • Offense comes from all four lines, not just Nash.

The Penguins will win IF

  • Marc-Andre Fleury stands on his head.
  • The wingers (Daniel Winnik, Patric Hornqvist in particular) are able to convert on passes from Crosby and Malkin, and outscore the Rangers.
  • They stop shooting 4.5%, like they did down the stretch.
  • The forwards help out their shorthanded blue line, limiting the Rangers incredible offensive depth.

I may be biased, but I don’t think the Pens can win this series without Letang. There’s always the revenge factor though. The Pens won’t be an easy opponent for the Rangers in what should be a fairly offense-heavy series.

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