Always nice to see a Cam Kiss

Earlier this season, I wrote a post about how the bubble may burst for the New York Rangers. While an unpopular opinion, it wasn’t without statistical proof. Their possession numbers –a huge correlation exists between possession, playoffs, and Stanley Cup winners–  were way down, they had an unsustainable SH%. That combination can spell death for a team.

However the Rangers are winning, somehow, and it forced me to revisit those numbers a few months later. The SH% was still abnormally high, but the possession numbers were starting to improve. At that point, I was cautiously optimistic, but not as optimistic as I was last season, when I correctly predicted a run to the Finals.

Now, after the trade deadline, I find myself wondering: Why not this Rangers team?

Without even getting into possession numbers, the Rangers are on an absolute tear in the last 41 games. They’ve gone 31-7-3, which is tops in the NHL. They’ve gone 12-2-3 without Henrik Lundqvist, which is absolutely absurd. I would’ve been happy with treading water at .500 while The King was out.

Since 11/28, when the Rangers finally had a fully healthy lineup, they’ve put together a 51.9% FF/USAT in score adjusted situations. While not stellar, it’s good for 11th in the league. That is, however, 4th in the Eastern Conference (holy cow the West is good), behind Detroit, and matchup nightmares Tampa Bay and the Islanders.

While that is impressive, it also doesn’t account for the steady rise in possession efficiency that’s been happening since January.

Continual trend up.

Continual trend up.

The interesting aspect of this is that the Rangers continue to trend up in possession, and do so without dressing their best lineup on a regular basis. The possession difference between James Sheppard and Tanner Glass is very high, so as he gets more playing time (hopefully), we should see this trend up a bit more.

The Kevin Klein injury won’t hurt possession much, as Matt Hunwick is actually a better possession player than Klein. We should actually see these numbers rise a bit.

Side note: That’s not to say Klein is useless and that because his possession numbers stink, he’s horrible. That’s just saying Hunwick is better at moving the puck up the ice. 

The other aspect that worried me was their SPSV%/PDO, which is still very high.

Still very high SPSV%/PDO

Still very high SPSV%/PDO

Again, teams with elite goaltending usually have much higher SPSV%/PDO than others, and tend to be above the league average of 100. Since this is heavily weighted by SV%, we need to break it down by the two components; SV% and SH%. First SV%:

Overall worse without Hank, but Talbot is doing fine.

Overall worse without Hank, but Talbot is doing fine.

The Rangers remain one of the best in the league when Lundqvist is in net. It’s very obvious where Cam Talbot started playing regularly, it resulted in a significant drop in SV%. He’s been unreal lately, and seriously carried the Rangers over the last few games, but it’s safe to assume his average is around .920 SV%, not the .960 SV% we’ve seen lately.

It’s a good thing Talbot has played as well as he has lately, since the Rangers SH% has, as expected, been tanking hard. They were never going to continue shooting as well as they have, especially Klein and Rick Nash. With both regressing to normal career averages, the Rangers SH% has taken a hit:

Steep, steep drop.

Steep, steep drop.

This is the incredibly lucky part of the Rangers’ recent run. The SH% had a sharp increase during the first two weeks of Lundqvist’s injury, and coincided with a shaky Talbot. The SH% has dropped off considerably lately, and has coincided with a really strong Talbot. It’s classic “pick up your teammates.”

One aspect that we haven’t looked at regularly is scoring chances (SCF%). Since 11/28, the Rangers have an SCF% of 51.8%, which again is 11th in the league and 4th in the conference:

Quality attempts is around 50% as well.

Quality attempts is around 50% as well.

It’s interesting to note that the peak coincides with their peak possession during their eleventy billion game winning streak in December. That’s more coincidence than anything else though, since they’ve seen a bit of a decline in quality chances lately, even if their overall possession play is up.

It’s worth noting that SCF% is loosely defined based on shot location and time after a turnover. It’s not an exact science, but it’s a start.

When you put all this together, you have a Rangers team that is playing their best hockey, and perhaps has some more improvement coming when they decide to dress their best lineup (Sheppard, not Glass). In the wide open East, where only the Lightning and Islanders pose significant matchup problems, the Rangers are in a prime position to succeed in the playoffs. There are concerns, and they will need some luck along the way, but why not this Rangers team?

Share: 

More About: