Fresh off an emotional win last night on Long Island, the New York Rangers are in DC to take on the Washington Capitals. The Caps are the fifth straight playoff team the Rangers will face, and they’ve gone 3-0-1 in that span, which is pretty impressive. With the Rangers on the second of back-to-backs, the first time Talbot has played back-to-backs, this will be another solid test for the Blueshirts.
The Caps rode a really hot December/January to a secure playoff spot. They are set as one of the wild card teams, likely the first wild card team, and will get one of the division winners once the playoffs roll around. These are not the same Caps that were all Ovechkin or all zeroes way back when. This team is balanced offensively and has good goaltending. They have a solid blue line as well, but that Brooks Orpik contract is going to kill them sooner rather than later.
What have they done lately?
Although in the playoffs, the Caps don’t instill confidence when you look at their puck possession. They peaked during their absurd run earlier in the year, but trailed off significantly over the past month or so. They’ve been getting back on track though:
Both teams trending up, Caps more sharply.
As for their SPSV%/PDO, the Caps haven’t had the major peaks that the Rangers have had, but they’ve been steadily above 100 for a while. That said, they’ve seen a pretty consistent decline since their December/January peak.
That’s a steady decline for the Caps.
When you see a decline like that, you expect to see a decline in both SH% and/or SV%. The Caps certainly peaked in SH% around that time, and have been consistently trending downward through today. Their ride had a huge climb and a steady decline. While the Rangers have had a season full with sharp increases and sharp decreases, none sharper than the decline we see going on right now.
Rangers trending down, hard.
Holtby has been a solid goalie for the Caps all season, but he has been hovering around 92-93% average all season. The Rangers have had much better overall goaltending, but saw a significant drop off when Talbot took over for Hank. Talbot’s been hot lately, and has been carrying the Rangers while their offense cools off.
Hot Talbot.
When you put it together, the Rangers are the better team, but that doesn’t mean the Caps are bad. They are very skilled and have one of the best offensive players in the game. Their powerplay is lethal as well. The challenge for the Rangers will be limiting Ovechkin’s chances.
Caps Systems
Under Barry Trotz the Caps run a 1-1-3 lock or a 1-2-2 forecheck, which they use aggressively or conservatively depending on the game situation (e.g., puck location, the score, etc.). In the defensive zone, Trotz runs your standard zone defense. On special teams, the Caps employ a 1-3-1 power play, and a diamond/box hybrid penalty kill depending on puck location and opposition setup.
Caps Lines
Alex Ovechkin-Niklas Backstrom-Marcus Johansson
Curtis Glencross-Alex Kuznetsov-Troy Brouwer
Jaosn Chimera-Eric Fehr-Joel Ward
Brooks Laich-Jay Beagle-Tom Wilson
Brooks Orpik-John Carlson
Karl Alzner-Matt Niskanen
Tim Gleason-Mike Green
PP1: Ovechkin-Backstrom-Brouwer-Johansson-Carlson
PP2: Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Ward-Glencross-Carlson
PK: Laich, Brouwer, Fehr, Beagle, Ward, Backstrom, Orpik, Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner
Braden Holtby gets the start.
Rangers Lines
Rick Nash–Derick Brassard–Mats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider–Derek Stepan–Martin St. Louis
Carl Hagelin–Kevin Hayes–J.T. Miller
Tanner Glass-Dominic Moore–Jesper Fast
Ryan McDonagh–Dan Girardi
Marc Staal–Kevin Klein
Keith Yandle–Dan Boyle
PP1: McDonagh, Yandle, Kreider, Stepan, MSL
PP2: Boyle, Girardi, Nash, Brassard, Zuccarello
PK: Stepan, Nash, Girardi, Staal, Moore, Fast, Hunwick, Boyle, Hagelin, Klein, McDonagh, MSL
Cam Talbot is in net.
Scratches/Injuries: Henrik Lundqvist (throat), James Sheppard (healthy), Matt Hunwick (healthy)
Crazy Prediction: Yandle gets a PPG.
Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game. Game time is 8pm on NBCSN.
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