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MSL: lead by example personified. Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

Last year, I started with a series of posts projecting the 2014-2015 New York Rangers payroll, and they were a series of posts I enjoyed writing. So with the trade deadline passed and a large majority of players locked up for next season, projecting the 2015-2016 Rangers payroll seems like the next logical step.

Payroll is a huge concern for the Rangers, as they have a boatload of money committed to seven forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies next season. They have four key RFAs (Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Carl Hagelin, Jesper Fast) to re-sign, and two –Hagelin, Stepan– are going to be relatively expensive.

The 800-pound gorilla in the room is the cap ceiling. This year’s cap is at $69 million, and while everyone has been expecting a healthy increase due to increased revenue, the Canadian Dollar has been slipping, and that will be a major influencer on the cap. Most are predicting a modest increase to just $71 million, which does not do the Rangers any favors.

Let’s break down who the Rangers have signed and who their free agents are:

Signed (Cap Hit): Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5m), Rick Nash ($7.8m), Marc Staal ($5.7m) Dan Girardi ($5.5m), Derick Brassard ($5m), Ryan McDonagh ($4.7m), Dan Boyle ($4.5m), Mats Zuccarello ($4.5m), Kevin Klein($2.9m), Keith Yandle ($2.625m), Chris Kreider ($2.475m), Dominic Moore ($1.5m), Tanner Glass ($1.45m), Cam Talbot($1.45m), Kevin Hayes ($900k)

Total: 15 players, $59.5 million

RFAs (Qualifying Offer): Derek Stepan* ($3.075), Carl Hagelin* ($2.25), J.T. Miller (938k), Jesper Fast ($845k)

Total: 4 players, $7.108 million in QOs
*-Arbitration eligible

UFAs (2014-2015 salary): Martin St. Louis ($5.625m), James Sheppard ($1.3m), Matt Hunwick ($600k)

Now comes the fun part: The projections.

  • Let’s get the easy onesout of the way first: Miller and Fast likely won’t get much more than theirQO’s, as neither has really proven themselves yet. Let’s ballpark them both around $1 million.
    • This gives the Rangers 17 players at $61.5 million, with 4 forward spots (1C, 3LW, 2RW, 4LW) and 1 defense (7D) spot open.
  • Let’s again ballpark a7D around $600k. These guys are the vets that are generally on one-year deals.
    • This gives the Rangers 18 players around $62.1 million, with 4 forward spots (1C, 3LW, 2RW, 4LW) open.
  • Derek Stepan is getting re-signed, that’s a no-brainer. I’d have to assume he’s looking at the contract for David Krejci as a comparable, but in reality it’s not. Krejci’s contract was for all UFA years, while Stepan is still under team control for two more years.
  • David Backes’ deal at $4.5 million per season is a better comparable, but that deal was also for all UFA years.
  • I honestly think the best comparable forStepan is Brassard’s contract at $5 million per season for five years. He’s the Rangers2C, so it’s expectedStepan will get a bit more as the1C and a betterPPG average than Brass. Let’s pencil inStepan at $5.5 million on a back loaded deal.
    • This gives the Rangers 19 players at $67.6 million, spots open at 3LW, 2RW, and 4LW.
  • The Rangers are probably going to let Sheppard walk and replace him from within. Oscar Lindberg comes to mind here, and he’s due a CBA-mandated 10% raise on his $675k salary, so let’s pencil him in at $745k.
  • This gives the Rangers 20 players at $68.345 million, spots open at 3LW and 2RW.
  • Going with a cap ceiling of $71 million, the Rangers have $2.65 million in cap space to fill those roster spots. If the Rangers demote Tanner Glass to the AHL, it opens up an additional $950k, giving the Rangers $3.6 million in space.
  • This, of course, is going to give the Rangers significant issues. Even if MSL takes an incentive-laden contract with a base salary of $2 million, there isn’t enough room for the Rangers to fill the roster. Even at $72 million, the Rangers are in trouble, although it gives them wiggle room for someone like Pavel Buchnevich.

It is going to be very difficult for the Rangers to fit both MSL and Hagelin under the cap. One of them is a goner, that is almost certain. Hagelin can bring in a decent haul from a trade, as he is still under team control. I’m sure the Rangers would prefer to keep him, but it’s just a business decision at this point: As currently constructed, the Rangers can’t afford him.

In the end, the cap ceiling will play a role in the decision-making process, but I feel something needs to give on the blue line. The Rangers have an awful lot of money committed to their blue line, and it’s not the most cost-effective strategy. I expect the Rangers to be active at the draft to address their cap concerns, but there’s a lot of work to be done.

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