keith yandle

Well yesterday sure was exciting, wasn’t it?

Glen Sather got busy, doing all of his work and saving us a little bit of stress for today’s 3pm NHL trade deadline. Slats’ first deal was his biggest, acquiring Keith Yandle from Arizona in exchange for John Moore, highly touted prospect Anthony Duclair, a 1st round pick in 2016, and a 2nd round pick in 2015. The Rangers also got a 2015 4th round pick and defenseman Chris Summers (AHL). Arizona retained half of Yandle’s salary ($2.625 million).

After that, the Rangers cleared roster and cap space by sending Lee Stempniak to Winnipeg for minor leaguer Carl Klingberg. The space was cleared to make room for San Jose’s James Sheppard, whom the Rangers acquired in exchange for a 2016 4th round pick (their own, not Arizona’s).

Oh, and perhaps the most important part of yesterday: The Rangers and Mats Zuccarello agreed to terms on a four year contract extension worth $4.5 million per season.

After the dust settles and the smoke clears, the Rangers actually came out ahead in all of these deals. Keep in mind that this is also a team that is 4th in the East in score-adjusted shot attempts/CF since they got both Ryan McDonagh and Dan Boyle back on November 28.  Let’s look into who they got, and how it helps them in the short-term.

Keith Yandle

Yandle is the prize of the deadline for Slats, and he paid a steep price to land him. Yandle is a premier offensive defenseman who led the Yotes in scoring before the deal with a line of 4-31-41. Yandle didn’t do the heavy lifting for Arizona (Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Zbynek Michalek did that), so Yandle played a primarily sheltered role. Interestingly enough, that’s the role he’s going to be expected to play in New York, behind Ryan McDonagh and Marc Staal. Here’s how Yandle compares to the rest of the left defensemen, including John Moore:

Yandle vs NYR D

Yandle vs NYR D

The table itself is interesting, as Yandle’s ability to drive possession at even strength isn’t that of Moore’s or Matt Hunwick’s, at least on paper. Yandle will likely get the sheltered minutes Moore got, which –in theory– should help his possession numbers. But make no mistake, Yandle is not a significant upgrade over Moore or Hunwick at even strength. He is an upgrade, but not a huge one. Let’s look at how he compares to Moore in a more direct comparison via HERO charts, courtesy of Own The Puck:

yandle hero copy

Drives possession, doesn’t suppress shots.

Yandle does a great job at driving possession and SAT/CF & USAT/FF for. However, he is not very good at suppressing shot attempts. This falls in line with his best usage: Deployed in the offensive zone. Moore is actually better at suppressing shot attempts, hence, the upgrade at even strength will be minimal.

moore hero copy

Moore is significantly better at suppressing attempts.

The biggest impact Yandle will have is on the powerplay, where he should hopefully take over the PP1 QB spot, running that unit with the four current forwards. That opens Dan Boyle and Ryan McDonagh to man the point on PP2, which finally moves Dan Girardi off the powerplay.

Perhaps the biggest thing is that the Rangers got Yandle for this year and next at just $2.625 million. That’s a pretty big bargain. The issue most people have is with the price –mostly Duclair– and the picks. In the end, Duke is an unknown still, and draft picks are collateral damage for a team going for it this year and next.

James Sheppard

Slats turned heads when he sent Stempniak packing to Winnipeg, and that was a tough one for the Rangers to swallow, if only because Slats didn’t land a draft pick in the trade. But Stempniak never geled with Alain Vigneault, especially with the role he was supposed to play. AV deploys his fourth line primarily in the defensive zone, something that may not have played to Stempniak’s strengths. In the end, he was essentially traded for Sheppard, who is a much better defender. Comparing the two via HERO charts, we see this as well:

Sheppard is a solid shot suppressor.

Sheppard is a solid shot suppressor.

The first thing we notice is that Sheppard is a great defender, suppressing shot attempts and having an overall SAT%/CF% comparable to a top-six forward. That said, he doesn’t score as much as Stempniak, or much at all. Stempniak is clearly the better offensive player though.

Better scorer, not as good a defender.

Better scorer, not as good a defender.

So why make this trade, if Stempniak appears to have the better overall numbers?

It’s a matter of usage within AV’s system and handedness. Stempniak lost his role as a 3RW with the emergence of J.T. Miller. In doing so, he also lost his spot on the right side, as Jesper Fast had taken over the 4RW role. Playing the off-wing was always an option, but AV prefers his fourth line be of the correct handedness. This is because AV tends to deploy his fourth line –when it doesn’t have Tanner Glass– in the defensive zone about 70% of the time. It is much easier to play the natural wing than the off-wing in the defensive zone.

Enter Sheppard, who is a lefty and filled a few needs for the Rangers. First, he can also play center and win draws, an area in which the Rangers needed an upgrade. He’s also much better suited to play the defensive zone starts that AV will require of him. A fourth line with Sheppard flanking Dominic Moore on the left with Fast on the right is a solid shutdown line, one the Rangers haven’t had all season.

The price to upgrade with Sheppard and Yandle was expensive, costing the Rangers a top prospect, two draft picks, and a young roster player who had been playing significantly better over the last few weeks. These are moves designed to help the Rangers win now, as their window to win with Henrik Lundqvist is open, but won’t be open for much longer. The Rangers are all-in.

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