zuccarello
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I hope everyone has cured their post-Isles-loss-hangover, because tonight the New York Rangers take on the Montreal Canadiens. Since it’s Thursday, and I pretty much exhausted my list of super-fantastic posts that get me yelled at, I think it’s time I do a musings.

  • In case you missed it, NHL.com is going to be undergoing a major overhaul, specifically on its stats page. You know what’s being added? #fancystats, that’s what. Corsi, Fenwick, potentially PDO, and a few others will be up and ready for everyone to view. So for all of you saying Corsi/Fenwick tell us nothing, give it up. The NHL agrees that it does.
  • Now the big question: When they add these stats, will they do it properly? Will they default to 5v5 CF/FF? Will they give us score adjusted metrics? Will zone starts be available? What about quality of competition/teammates? The NHL can do one of two things: make a great resource for casual fans who haven’t learned the new stats, or botch it completely.
  • Another big question: What will happen to sites like war-on-ice when this goes live?

  • On to the Rangers: There are two significant needs for this team at the moment: A third line center and a defenseman that is better than the John Moore/Matt Hunwick duo. Their best trade assets: J.T. Miller (since he apparently has no spot on the team, sigh), Carl Hagelin, and John Moore.
  • Regarding Hags vs. Mats Zuccarello, these charts were brought to my attention. The one on the left is Hags, and the right Zucc. Without getting into too much detail: Zucc produces points/puck possession like a first line player, but does not necessarily produce scoring chances like a first line player. Hags produces scoring chances/puck possession like a first line player, but doesn’t produce on the score sheet like one (more like a second line player). Derek Stepan is in there for comparison purposes this year, but it’s worth noting Stepan is having a bit of a rough year analytically.
  • When it comes to Hags vs. Zucc, both are extremely valuable players, and both are very good players. The reason I lean Zucc and not Hags is due to point production. Zucc has proven to have more skill and is a more proficient point producer. Hags is a good player, but the numbers game probably leaves him out. Such is the business of hockey. If he goes, the team that gets him will be happy.
  • As for Miller, without beating the Tanner Glass horse, he appears to have done something that irked the coach and he has had an uphill battle since. I spoke with Rick Carpiniello, who mentioned that the pair got off to a bad start due to work ethic. That issue appears to have been resolved, but Miller does make a lot of the same mistakes.
  • In the professional environment, if you make the same mistake multiple times, you get fired. I’m not in the locker room, but if that’s truly the case, then I can see Carp’s point about losing the coach’s favor here.
  • If Miller goes, the team that trades for him will be happy. However, I think the Rangers would be wise to hold on to him, since he’s producing comparably to Hagelin this season, both on the score sheet and in the #fancystats. Miller is younger and cheaper as well. Unfortunately, that’s why he’s got high trade value as well.
  • Personally, I think the Rangers will land a 3C, preferably Mike Santorelli. Depending on what is sent the other way, a Santorelli pickup moves Kevin Hayes back to 3RW, Jesper Fast down to 4RW, and one of Glass/Lee Stempniak out of the lineup. I’d expect the asking price to be a mid-prospect or a mid-pick, but price can be higher based on demand. I also think the Rangers will target a LD, preferably Andrej Sekera. I’d expect his price to be higher, probably a good prospect (but not elite) and a high-mid pick, depending on the player sent.
  • If the Rangers can do this without sending a current roster player, including Miller, in a deal, they will walk away winners at the deadline and –hopefully– a better team on paper and on the ice.
  • Question time:
    • What would you give up for Santorelli? Sekera?
    • If you don’t want Santo/Sekera, who would you target?
    • Do you think Miller needs a change of scenery?
    • If you had to dress one: Glass, Miller, or Stempniak, who would it be?

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