Continuing with the trend of posts that will get me yelled at, it’s time to look at Kevin Klein, his career season, his career averages, and if anything like what we’ve seen so far this season will continue. Klein is having a sensational season this year. He’s already doubled his career high in goals (8), is well on his pace to beating his career high in points (21), and has arguably been the best right-handed defenseman on the Rangers this season. It truly is remarkable the year he’s having.
But, and yes there’s a but, there are a lot of warning signs that this may not continue.On December 8, Klein was shooting 21.4% (six goals in 28 shots). He has two goals in 24 shots since then, dropping his SH% by six points (15.4%) in that two month span. Although his booming shot from the point is still a weapon, that offensive production is already starting to slip. It would be nice to see him get powerplay time with that shot, but that’s a whole other topic for a different day.
Klein offensive numbers this year, as noted in the past, are simply unsustainable. We’re already seeing that drop to his career average of 5% happening as we speak. Numbers don’t lie, and the regression to his career average is happening right before our eyes.
From a puck possession standpoint, Klein has never been a Corsi/Fenwick darling. He has just one season above 50% Corsi in his entire career, and that was six years ago. Klein usually hovers around 46% CF. This year has been fantastic though, as Klein sits at 51.5% CF, good for third among the current regulars. But even that is starting to come crashing down:
The above chart is Klein’s 20-game rolling average, which again is pretty fantastic. But that tail end, dropping from 56% (ish) to 52% (ish) is in line with what we expect: A drop to a number closer to his career averages. That’s a drop of about 4% in one month.
The same drop is hitting Klein’s SCF (scoring chance-for) percentage as well:
Again we see an overall fantastic season for Klein, but another drop at the tail-end of this stretch. This is also an 8% drop in allowing more quality scoring chances while on the ice.
We can dive deeper into the quality chances Klein has been allowing this season using his hextally. A hextally measures shot attempts for (left graph) and allowed (right graph) relative to the rest of the league. Blue means less shots from that area comparatively to the rest of the league, red means more shots comparatively to the rest of the league. For shot attempts allowed, you want blue in the high risk areas. Let’s look at Klein’s overall career first:
Looking at the right chart (shot attempts allowed), we see that Klein isn’t all that proficient at limiting shot attempts from the high risk area in front of the net. And now this season:
Naturally, Klein is having a great season, and is well above his career averages for limiting high percentage attempts. The chart below shows us this season and last season, to get a bit more of a picture from his Rangers career:
We again see a trend towards his career average, allowing more shot attempts from the slot than the rest of the league. Naturally, we can expect that as the season progresses to 82 games, we see that middle chart look more like the bottom chart. This is the fourth stat where we are either seeing a regression or are expecting a regression: Two quantity stats and two quality stats.
So Klein, who is clearly having a great season, is likely to regress, as noted above. The Rangers have him locked up for three more years at a $2.9 million cap hit. It’s less likely that we see a year like this again from Klein over the life of that contract. Since Klein appears to have a lot of trade value, is it time for the Rangers to sell high?
There are pros and cons of the approach. One of the major pros here would be avoiding the obvious regression games coming, both this season and in future seasons. Plus, the Rangers can probably find a guy who can be the 5/6D at a much cheaper price.
But, the Rangers don’t have anyone in Hartford that can take his spot and play those minutes, or at least it doesn’t appear that way. Dylan McIlrath would be the likely guy to take that role, but if he fails it’s on Mike Kostka.
Obviously with all this, return is the biggest question. The Rangers are pursuing a Stanley Cup, and need to solidify the team for another run. They would need either 1) Trust in McIlrath, or 2) a return that includes a player that can take Klein’s spot. It’s a tricky spot for the Rangers.
It’s worth noting that, believe it or not, it is possible to trade a roster player and upgrade at the position at the same time. Not every trade of a roster player means picks/prospects coming back, or creates a large hole at the position.
Share:
More About:Players