The New York Rangers are in Pittsburgh this afternoon to take on the Penguins in a big divisional showdown with playoff implications. This is another one of those four point swing games, and a win would put the Rangers within two of the Pens with one game in hand. A win would also move the Rangers ahead of the Caps with three games in hand. Either way you slice it, two points –preferably in regulation– are a necessity today.

As for their opponent, the Pens are again loaded with top-end talent, and now finally have the winger depth to complement their top-two of Sidney Crosby-Evgeni Malkin. Trading James Neal for Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling was a solid trade, but that has since been negated by Hornqvist’s injury. The deal for David Perron filled that hole for now, and will give them a dangerous forward corps once fully healthy.

Of course the issue for the Pens is on defense. On paper the defense is pretty solid with Kris Letang, Christian Ehrhoff, Paul Martin, and Olli Maatta leading the way. Maatta is done for the year, and only Ehrhoff and Letang haven’t missed significant time with injuries. The Pens allow a decent amount of goals (106 in 43 games), but their offense makes up for it.

What have they done lately?

The Pens are a bit cold, at 4-5-1 in their last ten games. Of course they went 4-0-2 before that, so it’s a matter of perspective. The Pens have been a solid possession team throughout their run of .500 hockey, still posting a FF% above 50%. As compared with the Rangers (rolling five game average), who have been on a steep decline in the past 4-5 games, the Pens have the possession advantage:

pens nyr ff

Since the Pens are above 50% for their possession, a little decline in PDO can always be a good barometer to see if they are just running into some poor luck:

nyr pens pdo

Marc-Andre Fleury has had some poor games mixed in over the past ten games, so that would explain the drop in PDO. Since PDO is strongly influenced by goaltending, we can infer that stronger goaltending will help the Pens right the ship.

Penguins Systems

Mike Johnston has Pittsburgh running a stacked 1-2-2 forecheck, which is what AV runs. Everyone attacks and breaks-out in packs. Short, quick passes and attacking the blueline with speed is preferred over dump and chase hockey and home run passes, essentially the opposite of Bylsma’s strategy. Not much has changed in the DZ. They still run a basic zone defense, a 1-3-1 power play and a hybrid penalty kill depending on puck location.

Penguins Lines

Chris Kunitz-Sidney Crosby-David Perron
Nick Spaling-Evgeni Malkin-Beau Bennett
Marcel Goc-Brandon Sutter-Steve Downie
Zach Sill-Mark Arcobello-Craig Adams

Paul Martin-Kris Letang
Scott Harrington-Christian Ehrhoff
Rob Scuderi-Simon Despres

PP1: Kunitz-Malkin-Crosby-Perron-Letang
PP2: Malkin-Spaling-Sutter-Bennett-Letang

PK: Goc, Adams, Scuderi, Letang, Sutter, Spaling, Martin, Ehrhoff, Sill, Bennett, Malkin

Fleury gets the start.

Rangers Lines

Rick Nash-Derrick Brassard-Mats Zuccarello
Chris Kreider-Derek Stepan-Martin St. Louis
Carl Hagelin-Kevin Hayes-Jesper Fast
J.T. Miller-Dominic Moore-Lee Stempniak

Ryan McDonagh-Dan Girardi
Marc Staal-Dan Boyle
Matt Hunwick-Kevin Klein

PP1: MSL-Brassard-Stepan-Nash-Boyle
PP2: Stempniak-Kreider-Zucc-Girardi-McDonagh

PK: Stepan, Nash, Girardi, Staal, Moore, Fast, Hunwick, Boyle, Hagelin, Klein, McDonagh, MSL

Henrik Lundqvist is in net.

Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game. Game time is 12:30pm on NBC.

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