rangers capitals

After winning six in a row against some bad teams, the New York Rangers will host the Washington Capitals tonight in what will likely be a divisional showdown throughout the remainder of the season. With the Pens and Isles seemingly comfortable with their 1-2 positions in the division, it’s the Rangers and Caps who will fight for that final non-wildcard spot. As we saw last year, ensuring a top-three finish in the division is crucial. The Caps hold a two point lead, but the Rangers have two games in hand.

Under Barry Trotz the Caps run a 1-1-3 lock or a 1-2-2 forecheck, which they use aggressively or conservatively depending on the game situation (e.g., puck location, the score, etc.). In the defensive zone, Trotz runs your standard zone defense. On special teams, the Caps employ a 1-3-1 power play, and a diamond/box hybrid penalty kill depending on puck location and opposition setup.

What have they done lately?

The Caps are 7-0-2 in their last nine, which is mighty impressive. They’ve been getting the deadly combination of solid goaltending, good defense, and balanced scoring. However they, like the Rangers, have been beneficiaries of a cupcake schedule. Five of the seven wins came against teams not going to the playoffs. On the flip side, those other two wins were against Tampa Bay.

The thing with this Caps team: It’s a run of poor possession play and high PDO. Here’s their five-game rolling average FF%. which is trending downward:

wsh-ff

And their PDO, trending to unsustainable levels:

wsh-pdo-copy

These are the signs of a team on an unsustainable run. The Rangers, who have the best goalie the Caps will face this month and on a run of their own, could be the team that stops their momentum and starts returning them to normal. Of course, the Caps could continue their run. But that’s why they play the game.

Rangers lineup:

Rick NashDerick BrassardMats Zuccarello
Chris KreiderDerek StepanMartin St. Louis
Carl HagelinKevin HayesJ.T. Miller
Tanner GlassDominic MooreJesper Fast

Ryan McDonaghDan Girardi
Marc StaalDan Boyle
Matt HunwickKevin Klein

Henrik Lundqvist is in net tonight.

Scratches/Injuries: Lee Stempniak (mumps), John Moore (healthy)

Be sure to check out our ticket link if you’re looking for tickets to the game.

Game time is 7pm on MSG.

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