Staal

Marc Staal has been a polarizing player for the New York Rangers this year. A pending free agent with a $3.975 cap hit, the Rangers are facing a critical decision involving another core piece –their third decision to make in two years. On one side of the coin, the Rangers can re-sign Staal, who is looking at a contract rivaling Dan Girardi’s deal (six years, $5.5 million per). On the other side of the coin, the Rangers can trade him, like they did with former captain Ryan Callahan.

On the surface, it’s not an easy decision to make. Trading Staal would mean that the entire leadership core from last season (Cally, Staal, Brad Richards) will have departed. However, Staal’s play has seriously regressed since the concussion and freak eye injury. Or at least, that’s what it seems. Staal has had a very weird career arc.

This chart, courtesy of war-on-ice, shows just how much Staal’s career has fluctuated:

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Staal is all over the place here. That red bubble is when Staal returned from the major concussion suffered at the hands of his brother Eric. Let’s go through Staal’s primary defensive partners, courtesy of HockeyAnalysis:

  • 2007-2008: Michal Rozsival
  • 2008-2009: Rozsival
  • 2009-2010: Rozsival
  • 2010-2011: Dan Girardi
  • 2011-2012: Stu Bickel
  • 2012-2013: Michael Del Zotto
  • 2013-2014: Anton Stralman

It’s no surprise that Staal’s best season came when he was paired with Stralman. We’ve discussed this ad nauseam around these parts, so there’s no point in diving into it again. What is a surprise is that Staal’s two other best seasons came when paired with Rozsival, who was pretty unfairly booed out of New York. Another interesting point: When they were together, they put up a whopping 58% CF, but both fell to the 52% range when apart. Staal spent a lot of time with Paul Mara that season, so that explains the drop off when apart from Rozi.

Let’s look at Staal’s performance on a line chart, with major events noted:

Staal Career Arc

Aside from his stint with Stralman, the post-concussion Staal just hasn’t been the same as the pre-concussion Staal. That sharp line downward at the right of the chart is the current season, which we know has been a bit of a tire fire for Staal.

Staal’s career has been a bit of a sine curve. He started high with Rozsival, then dipped down with Girardi and post-concussion issues, then high again with Stralman, then low because of –what I will assume– lingering concussion/freak eye injury concerns that were masked while with Stralman.

Simply put, the Marc Staal of today is not the Marc Staal of 2007-2009. His start to this season has not been promising, and he has about 3-5 years left in his prime before a –likely– serious decline. We could be in the middle of one of those downward swings on the sine curve that is Staal’s career. Of course, we could be looking at what post-concussion Staal is for the foreseeable future.

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