Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
In case you’ve missed it, and if you’ve been watching lately, you haven’t, the New York Rangers are playing some pretty inconsistent hockey. Some point to last year’s start as a sign of hope, but this is an entirely different situation from last year. The Rangers had solid possession numbers last year at this time, but were experiencing a combination of bad luck (bad SV% and SH%) and learning a new defensive zone coverage system.
This year, the Rangers are one of the worst possession teams in the league (20th – 49.5% FF close), but their PDO (combination of SH%+SV%, which usually regresses to 1000) is at 1000, meaning they likely won’t get any better there. Even when Ryan McDonagh comes back to the lineup, he’s replacing Matt Hunwick, who’s actually been one of the better defenders from a possession standpoint.
Long story short: That impressive streak we saw from January through the end of the year last season may not come this year. In fact, it likely won’t come.
The biggest issue is the one that most #fancystats folks saw, which was letting Anton Stralman walk via free agency. He’s thriving in Tampa Bay, after finally receiving some powerplay time. Stralman was the best possession defender on the team last year, and he was a huge positive influence on his teammates when he was on the ice:
Courtesy of hockeyanalysis
The above chart represent’s Stralman’s WOWY (without/with you) from last season. Players generally had better possession numbers with him on the ice than without him. It’s the sign of a player that constantly pushes the puck in the right direction. Stralman always made the short, smart passes that moved the puck out of the zone, with possession, that led to offensive chances. The Rangers lost that, and it’s truly hurt them on the ice.
Perhaps no Ranger has felt that effect more than Marc Staal, who sported a 56.2 CF% when paired with Stralman, but a 48.6 CF% when apart. Simply put: Stralman carried Staal last year.
We see that effect this year, as Staal is sporting a 47.8 CF% so far. Now, part of that could be a result of his defensive partners, none of whom have been Dan Boyle until very recently. But even if you want to factor in possession anchors Dan Girardi and Kevin Klein as his defensive partners (although Klein has been a nice surprise so far), Staal’s possession numbers stay the same with or without Girardi/Klein. The effect there has been negligible.
Last week, Chris wrote a post about Staal, and how he hasn’t earned that contract he’s been looking for. Staal is a part of the overall defensive problem, but he’s being absolutely buried with DZ starts:
Courtesy of war-on-ice
Staal is being given the heaviest workload of all defenders to date, even more than Girardi. Unfortunately, that comes with a significant decline in possession numbers, comparatively with Klein/Girardi. But the moral of the story is that Staal/Girardi have been big disappointments so far. They’ve been a part of the problem, and it’s unlikely they –based on career history– will be a major factor in the solution. I omit Klein from this discussion for now, but his career history isn’t promising. But he’s been good so far.
Another problem: Tanner Glass is still being given significant minutes over much more deserving players. Just looking at the deployment (red bubbles – negative possession, blue bubbles – positive possession), it’s easy to see:
Courtesy of war-on-ice
That’s Glass in the bottom middle, and Anthony Duclair off to the right in blue. Glass has consistently been the worst possession forward on the ice, but yet dresses every game. Duclair spent three games as a healthy scratch, despite driving puck possession. Sure, there are variances in zone starts (Glass gets more DZ starts), but Duclair has faced tougher competition. The effect there is minimal. Plus, I covered how Glass has always been a net-negative on the ice. Even Dominic Moore, who’s having a tremendous season so far, can’t salvage much.
At some point, the Tanner Glass experiment will need to come to an end. Jesper Fast, who apparently has the coach’s trust, was a healthy scratch last night. Fast is actually the only player with worse possession numbers than Glass, but does so with 20% OZ starts. Honestly, I’ll take the kid who knows defensive zone positioning over the vet that has a history of being an anchor. It may not work out, but it’s something different. The status quo hasn’t worked.
All is not lost for the Rangers, they are –in my opinion– a dangerous playoff team, should all things click at the right time again. However, there are certain steps that need to be taken to ensure this club has the best shot at winning game in and game out.
Step one is trusting both Duclair and Fast with third and fourth line roles, respectively. This kills three birds with one stone. It gives the Rangers more offensive punch with Duclair, more defensive consistency (note: staying in position) with Fast, and eliminates Glass from the lineup. After all, hitting doesn’t correlate to wins. It never has.
Step two is addressing the blue line issues, which is easier said than done. Staal has not been the answer without Stralman, but it’s too soon to write him off on the “trade before we lose him” movement. I’d like to see how he does with Dan Boyle. I’d also like to see how the blue line, as a whole, performs when healthy. There have been too many injuries and variables this early in the season.
But eventually something is going to need to be done to address the anchor that has historically been Kevin Klein, and the sub-par performance of Marc Staal (Girardi is here to stay, like it or not). I’d like to see if Dylan McIlrath can offer something more on a consistent basis. Same with Conor Allen. They may not be the answers, but sometimes you have to see what you got in the cupboard.
One thing is certain though: The roster, as it is constructed today, will not positively regress and make a run like last year’s club. Injuries aside, the possession numbers are just too far off, and the Rangers haven’t seen bad luck on the ice.
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