Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

There was a time last season that Henrik Lundqvist was playing so poorly, and Cam Talbot was playing so well, that a very small but very vocal segment of the fan base was calling for a change at the number one spot. Imagine that. Crazy, right? But, it happened. Small sample sizes can do wacky things to people’s perceptions. Talbot had a phenomenal 2013-2014 season, but has struggled so far (relatively speaking) in the new campaign.

Last year, Talbot ended the season with a 1.64 GAA and a .941 save percentage in 21 games played. If he had put up those numbers over a starter’s workload, he would have run away with the Vezina. We all knew (hopefully) that these flawed metrics, although nice to see from our backup, were not reflective of his true talent level. In fairness, they aren’t reflective of anyone’s true talent level.

In 4 games so far this season, Talbot’s GAA has ballooned to 3.48 and his save percentage has slid to .880. Neither of those numbers are particularly pretty. I’ve seen comments on the Twitters and other social media about how hard regression is hitting Talbot, which naturally begs the question: what is the mean he is regressing to?

Since Talbot’s only NHL action has come in one 21 game sample and one 4 game sample, its very difficult to have a baseline of his true talent level. If we looked back on his minor league and college track record, the picture doesn’t get much clearer. His college career is kind of a crap shoot to look at, since 1.) he played on a fairly weak team, 5+ years ago and 2.) his style and physical maturation changes have rendered those statistics relatively moot.

If we look at his minor league track record, the most games Talbot has played in a season was back in ‘12-‘13 with the Whale, at 55 GP. He put up a 2.63 GAA and .918 save percentage on a fairly mediocre Connecticut side. In previous seasons, he has played 22 and 33 games respectively in the AHL, with a steadily increasing statistical baseline. It shows development more than talent level.

At 27 years of age, Talbot doesn’t have a ton of physical upside left, it’s more about where he settles in at the NHL level. While he will never be a .941 save percentage tender over a larger sample, I don’t think something around his most significant AHL season (~.915) is that much of a stretch.

I’ve outlined Talbot’s style in a couple of different posts here, and it basically comes down to the fact that he is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type tender. He isn’t particularly weak in any area, but really has no elite carrying tool. Most of the time this type of goaltender just ends up a competent backup.

I’d be blown away if there were any more talk of displacing Lundqvist, but I think we will see a much better Cam Talbot over the remainder of this year, even if he isn’t nearly as valuable as some made him out to be after his monster 2013-2014 season. Even elite workhorses like Hank need a competent backup, and despite his struggles to this campaign, Talbot should have a fairly important part to play going forward.

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