AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

Although the New York Rangers’ lines are in a state of flux due to injuries, we have seen enough games thus far to get a fair barometer on how Alain Vigneault will deploy his lines throughout the season. Earlier this month, prior to the start of the season, I took a guess at how AV would deploy his lines. The only thing that we knew for sure at that point was that the fourth line would get buried with defensive zone starts. That part at least remains true.

Before we get into it, we should note that J.T. Miller, Jesper Fast, Chris Mueller, and Ryan Malone haven’t really played enough for the zone start percentages to be a true barometer of where AV has been starting them. However, the latter three have spent most of their time on the fourth line, with Miller getting most of his time on the third line (one game on the fourth line). The numbers for these players may be skewed a bit.

Overall:

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Home:

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Away:

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Courtesy of war-on-ice

Here’s how to read the above charts (click to enlarge, all of this is even strength 5v5 time only):

  • The x-axis (left to right) is zone starts. The further to the left, the more shifts started in the defensive zone. The more to the right, the more starts in the offensive zone.
  • The y-axis (up and down) is quality of competition based on TOI (better players get more ice time). The lower, the worse the competition. The higher, the better the competition
    • If a player is in the upper left corner, they are getting pinned with DZ starts against top competition. In the lower right: sheltered minutes in the OZ against weak competition.
  • The bubble color represents relative Corsi%. Blue is good (positive puck possession), red is bad (negative puck possession). It’s early in the season, so those numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.
  • Bubble size represents TOI/Game. The bigger the bubble, the more time a player gets per game.

My initial predictions were that the top two lines (Chris Kreider, Martin St. Louis, Rick Nash, Carl Hagelin, Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello) were going to be facing some stiff competition, but still get over 50% of their shift starts in the offensive zone. The third line (Miller, Lee Stempniak, Anthony Duclair, Kevin Hayes) would get a boatload of OZ starts while facing weaker competition than the top two lines. The fourth line would get the DZ starts.

Injuries have messed with the early deployments, but those predictions have been relatively accurate. This isn’t really a surprise, since we know how AV deploys his lines. I do want to focus on bubble size, specifically for J.T. Miller, Ryan Malone, Tanner Glass, and Kevin Hayes.

Miller (even at 100% OZ starts at home, when AV has the last change), Malone (at 100% OZ starts on the road, when AV doesn’t want to subject him to DZ starts against good competition), and Glass have the three smallest bubbles, meaning they aren’t getting as much even strength time as the rest of the team. While it is still early (and the bubbles are based of TOI/game, not total TOI, so games played isn’t a factor), it’s a trust thing with the coach. Miller is in the AHL now, despite almost 90% OZ starts. Glass, well, let’s not get into that one. Malone? I’d love for him to be a solid contributor, but he’s got to earn the trust.

Why did I put Hayes in that group? Well, his bubble is quite large and pretty high up on the chart. Part of that is because he’s been playing top line minutes the past two games, but that time was earned with strong play. He’s not flashy, so he doesn’t get the attention that Duclair gets, but he’s solid and he’s looking like the coup we expected him to be.

Other interesting bubbles: Mike Kostka (lots of OZ starts), Duclair (70% OZ starts, not driving puck possession relative to his teammates), and Jesper Fast (destroyed with DZ starts, not a possession anchor, but against weak competition).

It’s still early, but for the core guys that aren’t going to bounce around between the NHL and the AHL, this is the type of deployment we should expect to see from AV throughout the season. Derek Stepan’s return will alter a few things from a player perspective, but the lines will still see the same deployment strategies.

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