Thoughts after a three game losing streak

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Chris did the heavy lifting today with his post this morning, covering for me while I figure out what I did to my wrist. Luckily, it’s my left wrist, so my social life will go –ahem– unaffected. I get to give you some musings and thoughts after a three game losing streak. Since each time I need to move my left wrist hurts, it’s going to be a short list. Sorry about that.

• Is it Halloween yet? No? Ok then. No use panicking. This team was in much worse shape last year at this point, and they went to the Stanley Cup Finals. This year’s team has two major injuries to key players (Derek Stepan, Dan Boyle), and already has much better puck possession numbers than last year at this point in the season (small sample size). I’m not worried.
• Speaking of those injuries, these were two guys the Rangers really couldn’t afford to lose. They were already thin at center, and team defense was downgraded this summer. With Boyle, the Rangers certainly didn’t count on replacing Anton Stralman with Mike Kostka or Matt Hunwick. That one probably hurt the most. At least the Rangers had Martin St. Louis, an incredibly smart player, to take over 1C temporarily.
• Focusing on the defensive play of the entire team: I think the Isles game was the best example of how the Rangers can do the right things, but coverage failures (and yes, turnovers) can doom any team, even if they dominate puck possession.

• I think that happens to be a flaw in the #fancystats we see right now, and I honestly don’t know how it can be addressed without player tracking and adjusting for coaching systems. Shot suppression is a very good defensive metric, but it doesn’t cover everything (Side note: As I always say, you need to both watch the games and look at the stats. Relying on one at 100% over the other is asking for trouble). Turnovers, in my opinion, are a lot like goals: Too few events to evaluate at an effective level. There’s some luck involved too (the puck bouncing over Dan Girardi’s stick in Game 1 against the Kings comes to mind). That’s where shot suppression is more valuable: More events to analyze.
• But being out of position defensively is something entirely different, and it may or may not lead to shot attempts. I don’t think we can really get into significant analysis on this end until we see player movement tracking available. But that’s my opinion. I’m not the guy that will create stats, it’s just not what my mind is built for. I read, analyze, and interpret. If there are any ideas, would love to hear about them.
• Considering the defensive problems the Rangers have had, I’m wondering why Alain Vigneault is sitting Jesper Fast. They could certainly use him out there, he’s much better defensively than Tanner Glass. The ideal fourth line, at least at this point in the season, is Ryan Malone-Dominic Moore-Fast.
• The team has some interesting decisions to make when Stepan returns. Assuming MSL goes back to wing, there are too many wings in the top nine. None of MSL, Chris Kreider, Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello, and, for the moment, Lee Stempniak are getting booted from the top-nine. Carl Hagelin and Anthony Duclair are the only guys that could be in line for a demotion, but that’s really it. If MSL goes to wing, there are some tough decisions ahead.
• One item that hasn’t really been brought up: Keeping MSL at center, and sending Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller to the AHL for some playing time. I think Hayes has been better than Miller in the regular season, but it’s only been a few games. Certainly some intriguing decisions to be made.
• Marc Staal’s defensive partners over the years: Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden, Dan Girardi, Mike Sauer, Anton Stralman, Kevin Klein, Matt Hunwick, Mike Kostka. Yeesh.

Questions:

• Are you worried about this team?
• Who has been the best forward so far?
• Who has been the best defenseman so far?