Photo: Bruce Bennett

Photo: Bruce Bennett

Last year, I had some fun with a theoretical expansion draft. I did that more as an August musings post than anything else. This time around, there are big rumors about expansion, and it seemed like a good idea to do another theoretical expansion draft. After all, the roster has changed and the team’s situation has changed. As cities like Las Vegas, Seattle, Quebec City, and Toronto become more entrenched in the expansion rumors, it becomes hard to ignore the need to prepare for an expansion draft.

Let’s assume that any future expansion draft will follow the same rules as the 2000 expansion draft. Each team is allowed to protect either one goalie, five defensemen, and nine forwards, or, two goalies, three defensemen, and seven forwards. At least one defenseman left unprotected must have played 40 games last season or 70 games in the last two seasons. Two forwards must meet the same requirements. All first and second year pros (including AHL players) and unsigned rookies are exempt (Anthony Duclair and Brady Skjei are exempt, J.T. Miller is not). All players on ELCs that will slide (Ryan Graves) are exempt as well.

Using the current NHL/AHL roster, the following players are not exempt from the waiver draft (I believe this is accurate, please correct me if I’m wrong):

Goalies: Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Talbot, Jason Missaien, Cedrick Desjardins

Defensemen: Ryan McDonagh, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Dan Boyle, Kevin Klein, John Moore, Mike Kostka, Matt Hunwick, Dylan McIlrath, Steve Kampfer

Forwards: Rick Nash, Marty St. Louis, Derick Brassard, Carl Hagelin, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, Dominic Moore, Tanner Glass, Lee Stempniak, Matt Lombardi, Chris Mueller, J.T. Miller, Danny Kristo, Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast, Andrew Yogan, Marek Hrivik, Chris Bourque, Ryan Bourque, Nick Tarnasky

Personally, I would go the one goalie, five defensemen, nine forward route. Hank is the no-brainer, but it doesn’t make sense for the Rangers to protect Talbot at the expense of the other roster players. Trades have been made in the past expansion drafts, sending draft picks to expansion teams in exchange for not selecting certain players.

So here are my picks:

Goalie: Lundqvist

Defense: McDonagh, Girardi, Klein, Moore, McIlrath

Forwards: Nash, Brassard, Hagelin, Stepan, Kreider, Zuccarello, Miller, Lindberg, Fast

On defense, it really came down to Girardi, Boyle, or Staal. This was extremely difficult. I eliminated Boyle first because he’s 38 years old and there’s only so much left in the tank. I left Staal unprotected because he’s a UFA, and there’s really no point in protecting a UFA. There are risks with keeping Girardi and that contract though. If Staal were signed, I’d keep him over Girardi.

For the forwards, most of these were no-brainers. I followed the UFA mentality and left MSL unprotected. He’s already stated that he only wants to play in New York, so there risk of him being selected is mitigated by the fact that he’d likely re-sign in New York.

The tough choices came when I could only keep three of Lindberg, Fast, Miller, Kristo, and R. Bourque. Whoever wasn’t protected would surely be selected in the draft. I think you have to protect the guys who have the combination of high ceiling and close to NHL ready.

Kristo is extremely talented, but isn’t well-rounded at 24 years old. His time is running out, and this was accentuated by the fact that the Rangers didn’t give him a multi-year deal after his ELC ran out.

Bourque just had a breakout year and is probably NHL ready for a fourth line role. But is it worth protecting Bourque over someone like Fast, who has already played some effective games in the NHL? Over someone like Lindberg, who has the same offensive upside, same defensive talent, but wins over 55% of his face offs? It was a tough choice.

Of everyone left unprotected, only these guys are at a risk to get picked:

Goalies: Talbot

Defense: Boyle, Staal, Kostka

Forwards: Moore, Stempniak, Glass, Lombardi, R. Bourque

I think Talbot is definitely someone who would be selected. Everyone else is certainly a toss-up, and you can make cases for and against it. I can certainly see the Rangers making trades to ensure players don’t get picked, especially someone like Staal.

So what do you guys think? Who would you protect in an expansion draft?

Share: 

More About: