Projecting Derick Brassard’s next contract

Photo: Michael Ivins, USA TODAY Sports

Derick Brassard is the third and final RFA that filed for arbitration this month (Mats Zuccarello and Chris Kreider). I’ve looked at both Kreider’s and Zuccarello’s next contracts already, and with arbitration dates coming up, it’s time to look at Brassard’s potential deal.

Brassard is an interesting case, if only because of his high salary and inconsistent production. Despite his inconsistencies, he was a part of the most consistent line and powerplay unit for the Rangers last year. Brass has been a 50-point pace guy in the regular season, and has actually been a nice playoff producer as well. He is just off his second contract, which paid him $3.7 million last year (his QO) at a cap hit of $3.2 million over hit over the four years of the contract. At 26 years old, the Rangers will be buying his UFA years.

Perhaps the newly signed Tyler Ennis out of Buffalo is the best comparable to Brass. They have similar offensive output over their careers, and their #fancystats are close enough that we can compare them. Ennis has fewer OZ starts, but played with more quality teammates. Those more or less balance out. Ennis, if you recall, got a five-year deal at a $4.6 million cap hit. Although, Ennis is two years younger, meaning there were fewer UFA years to buy.

Antoine Vermette is in the middle of a five-year deal at a $3.75 million cap hit. But he signed that before the 2010-2011 season and was a UFA, so there is a bit of a difference there. Joffrey Lupul got a five-year deal at $5.25 million a year, but that was from Toronto. Tyler Bozak got five years and $4.2 million from Toronto as well with worse numbers than Brassard.

In Part Three of my series projecting the 2014-2015 payroll, I ballparked Brass at $4.5 million. Ennis’ contract, which is the most direct comparable I could find, cements that estimation. Term for Brassard is always going to be the issue, as committing long-term is a risky proposition. Naturally, Brassard’s cap hit will be affected by the term, but I’d venture a guess that he gets three or four years at around $4.5 million, give or take $250k.