Kadri deal reinforces higher market value for Stepan

Stepan > Kadri

Stepan > Kadri

In case you missed it, Nazem Kadri signed a two-year bridge deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs last night worth $2.9 million per season. Kadri has just 99 NHL games played –only one full season– and has a line of 23-37-63 over those 99 games. In his only full season, the lockout shortened season, Kadri put up 18-26-44. That 18-26-44 should look familiar, since it is the same line Derek Stepan put up last season. That should mean that Stepan’s market value is $2.9 million, right? Well, not exactly.

The problem is that Kadri has just one full year under his belt. He was bouncing between the AHL and NHL for the first two years of his pro career before that. Stepan cracked the roster immediately, and has three full years (without missing a game) under his belt. The point total for this year may have been the same, but Stepan has 212 NHL games played and a line of 56-84-140. That is an average of 0.66 P/G (1.91 P/60). Kadri’s average was 0.63 P/G (2.35 P/60).

Just an aside: I don’t know where I can find career –or even three-year average– P/60, which is the stat I wanted to use here. P/G isn’t terrible, but P/60 is a more accurate reflection. However, the point is still made. (Thanks George)

After Kadri’s deal was announced, many jumped the gun and said Stepan should sign for that exact amount. However Stepan’s value is considerably higher on paper. Factor in that many believe Stepan is the better player, and all of a sudden $2.9 million is a low-ball offer. Early in the offseason, I valued Stepan at $3.75 million per season on a bridge deal, using Claude Giroux’s bridge deal as market value. Even at that number, the Rangers won’t need to deal anyone to stay under the cap, despite what others may say.

If anything the Kadri deal has reinforced that Stepan is worth more than $3 million per season. Stepan is more seasoned, more important to his club, and is currently the better player on paper and on the ice. Kadri’s $2.9 million just shows that a Stepan deal will likely be north of $3 million per season.

22 Responses to “Kadri deal reinforces higher market value for Stepan”

    • Dave says:

      Thank you sir. Figure Kadri’s P/60 average comes down while on a Leafs team that should crash back to mediocrity next season.

      • Centerman21 says:

        You truly believe that Dave? The Leafs will come back to the team that missed the playoffs each year since 04′ ? I actually think they will be a good team. Adding a goalie that isn’t a head case in Bernier can only help light a fire under Wisen Riemer’s rear end. Adding Clarkson makes them a little tougher as a team.

        I was thinking that the Kadri deal last night would help Stepans contract get done. Beeing he’s and Kadri had the same stat line they’d effect each others contract. Hopefully the Kadri contract sets a better market value for Stepan.

        • Dave says:

          As a team they shot well over league average, and didn’t have the possession numbers to back it up. I’m in the camp that believes they would have hit a major slump in an 82 game season.

    • Puck Luck (@Centerman21) says:

      I don’t understand the importance of that particular stat. No Skater plays 60 mins in any game. That stat only shows what a player scores every 3-4 games. Per 60 min stats should be reserved for goalies. It’s something to compare players to each other but Pouliot is a league leader. That’s all you should need to know about that stat!

      • RangerSmurf says:

        You can just as easily divide that by 4 and get a 15 minute rate, which is more adequate for a forward at even strength. Doesn’t really change anything though, the relative rankings on the list would still be the same.

        And Pouliot being there shows that he’s been offensively productive as a 3rd liner. Is that everything you need to know? Of course not, but it does show he can provide some offensive punch in the bottom 6, which is valuable.

  1. MBN says:

    Agree that the Kadri deal reinforces the value for Stepan at somewhere north of $3 million. Not sure how far north though. But anything in the 3.5 million area is fair for both sides. And, if Stepan keeps this up, he will get paid in 2 years.

    • Gary says:

      Yes but Stepan’s agent wants to get paid now!

      • Dave says:

        The Kadri deal should speed things up, since they are comparable to each other. Kadri has less value, but now both sides have something to use in the negotiations.

        • Centerman21 says:

          Another thing in the Salary cap numbers concerning Stepan is the 7.5% bonus cushion teams are allowed free of cap charge. With a 64.3 mil $ upper limit that’s another $4.822 teams can use free of cap spending. The Rangers pay out $762,500 in bonuses now.
          Richards gets a $2 mil signing bonus in his salary but that doesn’t show but let’s just say it should. That’s another $2.1 million Sather could use to sign Stepan. Which could be $4.1 mil. The Rangers have between 6 and 8 mil to spend. Money is no issue in signing Derek to a new deal.

    • Puck Luck (@Centerman21) says:

      He could negotiate an extension next summer but he still has to play the 2nd year of that bridge deal. He should offer the Rangers a 1 year Band-Aid contract and cash in when the cap goes up.

  2. Walt says:

    If the Rangers are smart, they offer $3 million now, with the understanding that he will get treated very well after the bridge deal is completed. You have to give the team some flexability with cap space in case of an emergency.

    Just a question for the staff, can we offer a signing bonus without it affecting the cap hit????? If so, sign him to a deal in the ranger of $2 million a year, with a signing bonus of $4 million for two years. That would give Step an agreement of some $4 million a year, and the team still has flexability to do deals down the road if need be.

    • RangerSmurf says:

      “Just a question for the staff, can we offer a signing bonus without it affecting the cap hit?????”

      No, all dollars are included in the cap hit. For instance, Richard’s deal included, IIRC that is, a $2m base and $10m bonus in the first year.

      His salary for that year is listed as $12m, and that’s the number the cap hit is ultimately based on.

    • Dave says:

      Every dollar counts against the cap. It’s only ELC’s and 35+ contracts where bonuses do not count.

  3. Matt Josephs says:

    Give Stepan around $3.5 million for 2-3 years. That’d be best for both sides. If Stepan keeps this up, he will hit a home run his next contract.

    That said though I don’t quite get what Stepan’s looking for. He should take what he could get and call it a day. He won’t win this battle. He has no rights. I’m not trying to be harsh on Stepan, but from a GM’s perspective this is a contract Sather has to get right. It’s a touchy situation, but Stepan has to really prove his worth over the next two years in full seasons and playoffs. If Stepan wants to become the highest paid center on the team, he’s going to have to play that part.

  4. Seahorse says:

    Is it really fair to compare contracts to teams that overpay everyone? This is a team that gave 7! Years and $37 million to clarkson

  5. SteveM says:

    SIGN THE KID DAMMIT

  6. Johnny Red says:

    I have followed sports for over 50 years and I’m still shocked how players can have 1 or 2 good years and expect big contracts. What happened to proving yourself for years before getting big bucks! It’s crazy what these guys expect and when they don’t pan out they get to keep the money any way. Why don’t owners have the right to give them less when they haven’t performed up to the contract. I think they all should make the money but PAY YOUR DUES FIRST.
    I think Stepan is more proven then the others. He has been consistent for 3 years but, a bridge deal isn’t so bad. He will more then double his salary, and on the next contract he will get BIG bucks. He’s that good.
    Personally I would give him the long term deal which will be a bargin in a few years, but with the salary cap era thing are different.

  7. So Stepan has been a regular for 3 years and deserves more.

    Del Zotto will have been a regular for 5 years and will deserve more. Especially since Del
    Zotto plays both sides and last year was a + player despite playing alongside Bickel,Gilroy, & Eminger. Put Staal with those 3 guys and Staal is a minus player. You can take that to the bank.

  8. Doug Peters says:

    Come on, Glen! Get him signed ASAP.

  9. Arnie Kozak says:

    Being a RANGERS FAN for over 40 years plus,living in the Vancouver area, I follow the Canucks as my #2 “favourite” team, I follow their activity and admire the players that signed for less than if they had requested trades to a higher paying team,and/or accepted the bigger money, the Rangers have seemed to “lure” attractive players by paying them MORE than fair market value and its blown up in their face more than once, LOL, remember the Gomez contract? However, that’s why players have agents who handle the wheeling and dealing. Stepan is definately worth the amount that they will settle on in the end and may he prosper via stats over the next few seasons, He’s a KEEPER !!!! :-)