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With March streak, Rangers playoffs chances up to 86.9%

April 8, 2013, by


These new Rangers are starting to look like the Rangers of old, and it is beginning to show in the standings. Currently, the Rangers have a record of 19-15-4, good for second place in the Atlantic Division and seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Islanders (19-16-4) are tied with the Rangers in points, but the Rangers have a game in hand and own the tiebreaker, so they sit in eight place in the East.

Yesterday’s win over Carolina boosted the Rangers chances of making the playoffs by 11.6%, up to an 86.9% probability of making the playoffs (all percentages courtesy of Sports Club Stats). All of a sudden, the talk isn’t about whether this club will make the playoffs –something we said they will do from the start of the season– but about what seed they will get and who they will face in the first round. It’s amazing what a 3-0-1 record in March, including three points against the Penguins, can do for the confidence of the fans.

The Rangers have ten games remaining on their schedule. All ten of those games are against teams either barely above them (Toronto twice) or below them (Islanders, Philly, Florida twice, Buffalo, Devils twice, Carolina) in the standings. That bodes well for a team that will hopefully continue this hot streak right into the playoffs.

As Kevin noted in the beginning of the season, 53 points appeared to be the cutoff for the playoffs, and the percentages at Sports Club Stats appear to be consistent with our predictions. The Rangers are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot (92.6% chance) if they finish at 53 points, which is at worst a 3-2-5 record in their remaining games. Considering their schedule, this should be an easy mark to reach.

Based on their current record, the Rangers have an 8% chance at the 5th seed, a 22% chance at the 6th seed, a 38% chance at the 7th seed, and a 19% chance at the 8th seed. Naturally these percentages will change with the Rangers’ performance in their next ten games. They will also change depending on how other teams perform. For example, if the Rangers go 10-0-0 and the Penguins go 0-9-0 to finish the season, then the Rangers win the division. That scenario isn’t depicted in Sports Clubs Stats’ percentages –because it is extremely unlikely that it happens– but it is a scenario nonetheless.

It is more than likely that the Rangers can at least finish this stretch with a 6-3-1 record, which puts them at 55 points. At that point, the Rangers would likely be the 7th seed (60%) or the 6th seed (30%). The 7th seed is a date with Montreal (cringe), and the 6th seed is a date with the Southeast winner, likely Washington or Winnipeg.

If the Rangers can avoid a date with Montreal for as long as possible, it would be great. The same goes for Ottawa, as the Rangers just can’t beat those two teams (0-5-1 this season). They have the schedule to make some noise and potentially get to the 6th seed, but that appears to be a bit of a long shot. That said, at least they have put themselves in a position to control their own destiny for postseason play.


  1. Mikeyyy says:

    Now that’s a spicey meataball!

  2. Bloomer says:

    The playoffs start today for the Rangers with back to back games against the Leafs. I am hoping for a sweep, which will move the Blue Shirts up the standings. When this team is playing with full mojo, they are the top Beast of the East.

  3. Walt says:

    Best case senerio is 6th place, but if 7th is where we land, then we have to get 4 win against the Canadians. At the inital glance it looks bad, with the new line up, I’m not near as worried as before. Bring them on!

    Also forgotten in this article, last season we went 7 games against the Caps, they always play us tough, what’s changed? Nothing!

    Every team can win a seven game series, even last season the Cindy led Pens fell to Space man, and his Flyers. All I want to do is get in, because this team, as assembeled was made for play-off hockey! That even without Corsett, and possibly Miller in the line up.

    • Dave says:

      Even last year’s squad had issues with the Habs. I’d prefer to avoid them at all costs.

      • Walt says:

        We have to slay the demons, why not in the first round? I agree, I’d rather not, but we shouldn’t fear them either!

  4. Walt says:

    Should have read Dorsett!! My bad.

  5. Joe says:

    to be the best you have to beat the best! Let’s get in and then take care of whoever we face in the playoffs. This team has the talent to win and they seem to be on the right track now. Go Rangers!!

  6. Matt Josephs says:

    Big two games coming up against Toronto. Win em both and anything as high as 5th is feasible. Ottawa is slipping a bit so 6th is definitely still in play so long as the Rangers keep up the good form.

    • Dave says:

      Considering their schedule, they can feasibly go 10-0 in this run. I expect 6-3-1 though. They’d need some help to get to the 5 seed in that case.

      • Matt Josephs says:

        All really comes down to who they beat at this point. Games against the Leafs, islanders, and Devils are the most important remaining. Those are 5 games and they definitely clinch a spot if they win all of them.

        6-3-1 is a good bet, but it depends who they beat in those 6 games. Might not get a 6th seed if they win the wrong games on the schedule.

  7. ranger17 says:

    Playoffs are a differant season and is a crap shoot . Anyone can beat anyone in the playoffs .Injuries will play a big part for any team making it to the playoffs . Take Cindy’s team Will Cindy be back haven’t heard anything on Neal , if he is concussed maybe he is out , Is Staal going to play , catch the drift . We play well against Boston but i would not wan t to face then in a 7 game series . They are playing awful right now , but do you think they will play like they are now once the dance begins . And Ovie looks like he is on a mission right now . Old saying be careful for what you wish for . I personally think we can beat anyone , we seem to be peaking at the right time , as long as we don’t play down top the teams we are playing in the last 10 games as we tend to do .

  8. Chris F says:

    Ottawa’s 3 game skid has been huge for the Rangers. Is it possible all those injured players have finally caught up to the Senators and they’re finally regressing to the mean?

    With back-to-back games against Toronto, Rangers can pass Ottawa and catch the Maple Leafs this week.

  9. Seahorse says:

    I’m living in April at the moment. (I’m sorry to be that guy)

  10. Tim B says:

    I would laugh if the penguins go 0-9 and rangers 10-0