Early shot percentage numbers show some over and under achievers

January 30, 2013, by
Hagelin won't be goal-less for long.

Hagelin won’t be goal-less for long.

With the Rangers offense appearing to finally be coming to form, the attention shifts focus to the goal count for the newcomers and those with high expectations. Many expect the offense to come primarily from Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan, and Derek Stepan. But to the surprise of many, Taylor Pyatt (three goals) has thrown his name into the mix, and Carl Hagelin has been MIA on the score sheet.

Pyatt has been the second best offseason acquisition thus far. His three goals are a product of his hard work and his ability to be in the right place at the right time. Pyatt’s three goals have come off seven shots, good for a 42.9% conversion rate. Obviously that won’t continue, especially when you look at his career 11% conversion rate. A regression to the mean is bound to happen, and while seven shots is a small sample size, those expecting Pyatt to continue scoring at this pace will be in for a rude awakening.

Pyatt –generally speaking– is a 15 goal guy. When you prorate that for 48 games, that’s around eight goals. Pyatt is already halfway there with more than 40 games left in the year. His career averages suggest two things: 1) his shooting percentage will come crashing back down, and 2) as a result, his goal total will stop climbing so quickly. That doesn’t mean Pyatt will be horrible going forward, it just means he’s not going to continue scoring at a three-goal-in-five-game pace.

As for Hagelin, he has 15 shots (as of the writing of this post) and zero goals. Last season, Hagelin shot at around a 10% conversion rate, and had 14 goals in his rookie season. It’s impossible to project what Hagelin’s career averages are after one season, but 10% is around league average, so let’s go with 11% considering he will be getting time with Nash, Gaborik, and/or Richards at times.

At an 11% rate, Hagelin should already have a goal this season, maybe two. He’s already behind his pace from last year, but it’s still early in the season. Of course Hagelin won’t be held scoreless all season, but if he continues to get quality minutes, his scoring will eventually get back to that 10%-11% conversion rate. Considering he’s already behind that pace, expect Hagelin to progress back to his mean, which means a few more goals in a shorter amount of time. Hagelin had a strong game last night, which can only lead to good things.

Categories : Analysis


  1. Jerry says:

    I’m not to worried.hags will start producing.and on another note Dave I think rockets angry with us.lol

  2. Chris F says:

    Both Hagelin and Stepan, though especially Stepan, had quality scoring chances and good shots last night. Bryz made a couple of pivotal saves against Stepan to keep Philly in the game.

    If these two continue to play as they did last night, the goals will come.

  3. Mikeyyy says:

    Nice post. Lets hope Pyatt has a graves like aberration of 17% shooting for a year.

    Haggy looked tired the other night. Is his conditioning ok?

    • Jared says:

      I thought hags was the best skater for the rangers against the Flyers, He caused a turnover in the offensive zone that led to a shorthanded scoring chance. He also skated back caught the puck at the blue line and threw it back in which led to another scoring chance. Defensively, he back checked hard to negate what would have been a three on two. The moving of him to second line is going to pay dividends very very zone.

      Only thing I think he did wrong was take the too many men penalty.