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Debunking the Shane Doan asking price

With Rick Nash in the mix, there appears to be only one more target for the Rangers, and that is Shane Doan. Adding Doan to the club would solidify the Rangers depth at forward, making them true Stanley Cup contenders, and possibly the Cup favorites come October. Since the Phoenix ownership situation is still up in the air, Doan has already begun shopping his services, which included a visit to New York last week.

The interesting tidbits with Doan though come through his rumored asking price. The rumor mill is stating that Doan is asking for at least four years, and an average of $7.5 million per season. This is where that four year/$30 million price tag rumor comes from. While most are panicking and backing away from Doan, let’s analyze this a bit more, because it really doesn’t make any sense.

Last season, Doan finished with a line of 22-28-50, a ten point decline from his previous season, and 23 points down from his 2008-2009 campaign, the last time he finished with 30 goals and 70 points. The soon-to-be 36 year old winger has actually seen a decline in his production the past two seasons, and at 36 years old, it’s safe to assume that he won’t touch 70 points again.

This brings me back to the asking price. Four years and $30 million sure is a lot for someone who is a 50 point player, and someone who would be considered a 35+ contract upon signing. That’s where this price tag doesn’t make sense. The signing team is on the hook for the cap hit for the duration of the contract no matter what. Tying $7.5 million to someone who is in the tail end of his career isn’t a logical move. Every GM in the league is aware of this.

The 40 year old Ray Whitney, Doan’s former teammate,¬†signed with Dallas for $9 million over two seasons. Whitney had 70 points last season. Jaromir Jagr got $4.55 million for one year¬†from Dallas after a 54 point season. Jagr is four years Doan’s elder. This is more along the lines of what Doan should expect, logically speaking.

Players in the $7.5 million and up category include Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Eric Staal, Marian Gaborik, Rick Nash, Shea Weber, Zach Parise, and Ryan Suter. Doan, simply put, is not in the same category as these players. He never was throughout his entire career. This is another reason why this $7.5 million asking price seems absurd.

In my humble opinion, this rumor got started by an irresponsible tweet (I believe this was started by the Coyotes’ radio announcer, correct me if I’m wrong please), and it went viral. After all, if you see enough tweets about it, it must be true. But if we think logically, then we know that Doan’s eventual price isn’t going to come near the four years and $30 million that seems to be sweeping the web.

Using market value and comparable signings, a fair assumption is that Doan gets 3-4 years and around $4.5 million per season. If he were to sign for fewer years –say two years– then he would likely get around $5 million, perhaps a little more. This is about market value. Just because an asking price is read about on Twitter, doesn’t mean it’s true.

After all, if you believe everything you read on Twitter, then you believe that Chris Kreider was a sticking point in the Nash trade.

22 Responses to “Debunking the Shane Doan asking price”

  1. SalMerc says:

    Doan is an excellent player, but the $7.5 price is indeed too high. Believing that Sather needs to keep some money in the till for MDZ and Hank (down the road), it may be better to offer 2 years at $5M each. If he doesn’t want that, then we actually have some kids fighting for that spot who may not see the ice because of a veteran who isn’t pulling his weight. I would like Doan, but not at the expense of giving some kids a solid look.

    • Dave says:

      $7.5 million is not his asking price. Period. That price you see thrown around is just a tweet got viral.

  2. TheWrage says:

    Here’s the tweet, Dave. Take it for what it’s worth. https://twitter.com/Gambo620/status/223841139659259905

    I find it fascinating it went from a East team offered the 4 yr/30 mill deal to TSN reporting those numbers were Doan’s asking price. Lazy reporting? Tough to know who to believe.

  3. Walt says:

    Doan at $5 mil is still too high!

    Look, if you sign him for one year, so be it, give him five million, but to go after a longer contract makes no economic sense. He is fadeing, what in the world makes anyone think that he will ever repeat the 50 point year he had, let alone less, which has been the trend the last few years.

    The second possible year of a contract that people say we should sign him for would be the year Slats has a slew of RFA, and UFA, in Hank, and so on. Why in the world would you tie your hands up, and put yourself in a position that we could lose one of our young kids to an offer sheet, due to cap space. I read that the Flyers are thinking of an offer sheet for Subban, because of their need for a d-man. Don’t for a moment, think that they, given a shot at Hank, wouldn’t go after him big time. Then we would be stuck with a relic, signed to a long term agreement, and cap hit even if he retires, and loose our franchise player, no way!

    Folks, Doan is in the twlight of his career, and at his best, he would never have been worth more than $5 million a year. He is a great leader, good character, team and family man, we’d love to have him, but for one, possibly two years at best, and no more than he is worth, 4.5 to 5 max! Everyone bitched that Dubi signed for 4.5 mil, and wasn’t carrying his weight, what would these same people say if Doan was a 30 point man at 5 million a year? Let’s not forget we have some young kids in the system who should be given a shot at making the team, they are our future.

  4. Steve C says:

    I think Doan realizes he is the last productive piece out there and all the teams that missed out the big names this off-season will overpay for him.

    I mean pitt/philly they had over 7 million a year in the budget for the next 10 years for players that went elsewhere.

    That money sometimes burns a hole in a GM/owner’s pocket and Doan is trying to leverage these teams off each other.

    7.5 million is likely not what he gets, but Pitt/philly offering 6 million per over 4 years would not shock me.

    • Dave says:

      With a new CBA coming, GMs aren’t going to spend wildly on players that aren’t elite talents.

      • Seahorse says:

        dont underestimate the stupidity of a GM

        • Steve C says:

          Agree 100% with this comment.

          Your owner clears you to spend 7-8 million dollars in the offseason and you miss 2-3 times on the big fish you may overpay for a guy like Doan.

          Again I don’t think a team will go 7.5 but 3-4 years at 6 million per is not crazy considering what is out there right now.

        • Jess says:

          No offense Dave but the Flyers who are ON the owner’s CBA team made the offer sheet to Weber.

          They made that offer a couple of days AFTER the owner’s reported first CBA offer.

          Detroit also is supposedly rumored to have made a big offer to Doan.

          This is the NHL where GMs and Owners have no self control when it comes to pissing away money.

  5. SalMerc says:

    While Doan may be expensive, is he the piece that pushes us over the top? If so, that $5M may be worth it, even for 2 years. If not, then don’t bring him in at all.

    • Walt says:

      Don’t bring him in at all!!!!!

      • wwpd says:

        for a 3rd RW? insane. the weak spot in our forward lineup is the 3rd line center. if anything that is the position that needs to improve

        nothing againt brian boyle but unless he has an extra level of skill i haven’t seen, he is a good 4th line center but an average at best 3rd liner

  6. Rickyrants13 says:

    I dont see how anyone could find this to be wrong? If this rumor is true then all it is. Is Doan saying that if you are going to uproot me and my family then you are gonna pay for it.

    It could be a rumor. Or it could be false. If its true we walk away. If its false we keep talking.

  7. Zen says:

    The proposed contract terms are just silly and obviously untrue. Moving on…

    In general, the other teams in the East are way more desperate to add Doan than the Rangers, especially after the Nash deal. The only way Doan is a Ranger is if he truly wants to be here and takes at most 2 yrs @ $5M. Given his connections to the coaching staff, it is a possibility.

    • Pete says:

      If he’s looking for the best chance at a cup how could he not sign with the Rangers? Not sure he puts any other eastern conf team over the top quite like he would the Rangers.

  8. joe kumpf says:

    I think he ends up a flyer at $6 million for 4 years, still a bit too high, but Holmgren is reaching because of his trade blunders of Carter, Richards, Gagne – all won a cup and the signing of the headcase goalie for $50 million who really blames everyone including the beer vendor for his poor performances.

  9. Pete says:

    I have no doubt what-so-ever that a GM in theory would/will give him that much. Also lets remember that a player sometimes is more than his numbers, just look at what Richards meant to the Rangers last year.

    Doan in the right situation could still put up 30+ goals, just cuz it didnt happen in Phoenix the last 2 years does not mean he isnt capable. If that was the case then why should we think Nash will score more than last year?

    If you look at a team like the Penguins, who lost a bit on offense, they could use a high character/leader type of guy who could also net 25+. The premium they might pay, with having the cap space, could be 2mill+ because it makes sense TO THEM, the same doesnt have to be true for any other team.

  10. Rob sahm says:

    I will take doan for 2 years at 4million per no more or no less if not walj away

  11. Mark says:

    If it is the Rangers and Doan it will be 2 years about 9.2MM. If it is the Flyers it will be more like 2 and $10MM or 3 and $14MM. That is if they are not looking elsewhere for their goal scorer. I think Sather will lock up Hank when the time comes, but if he does not the $$ will be huge.

  12. The Big Whistle says:

    Rangers can’t go more than 2 years with Doan because they have many core young guys that need to be locked up then as well as Lundqvist soon.