Debunking the Shane Doan asking priceJuly 31, 2012, by
With Rick Nash in the mix, there appears to be only one more target for the Rangers, and that is Shane Doan. Adding Doan to the club would solidify the Rangers depth at forward, making them true Stanley Cup contenders, and possibly the Cup favorites come October. Since the Phoenix ownership situation is still up in the air, Doan has already begun shopping his services, which included a visit to New York last week.
The interesting tidbits with Doan though come through his rumored asking price. The rumor mill is stating that Doan is asking for at least four years, and an average of $7.5 million per season. This is where that four year/$30 million price tag rumor comes from. While most are panicking and backing away from Doan, let’s analyze this a bit more, because it really doesn’t make any sense.
Last season, Doan finished with a line of 22-28-50, a ten point decline from his previous season, and 23 points down from his 2008-2009 campaign, the last time he finished with 30 goals and 70 points. The soon-to-be 36 year old winger has actually seen a decline in his production the past two seasons, and at 36 years old, it’s safe to assume that he won’t touch 70 points again.
This brings me back to the asking price. Four years and $30 million sure is a lot for someone who is a 50 point player, and someone who would be considered a 35+ contract upon signing. That’s where this price tag doesn’t make sense. The signing team is on the hook for the cap hit for the duration of the contract no matter what. Tying $7.5 million to someone who is in the tail end of his career isn’t a logical move. Every GM in the league is aware of this.
The 40 year old Ray Whitney, Doan’s former teammate, signed with Dallas for $9 million over two seasons. Whitney had 70 points last season. Jaromir Jagr got $4.55 million for one year from Dallas after a 54 point season. Jagr is four years Doan’s elder. This is more along the lines of what Doan should expect, logically speaking.
Players in the $7.5 million and up category include Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Eric Staal, Marian Gaborik, Rick Nash, Shea Weber, Zach Parise, and Ryan Suter. Doan, simply put, is not in the same category as these players. He never was throughout his entire career. This is another reason why this $7.5 million asking price seems absurd.
In my humble opinion, this rumor got started by an irresponsible tweet (I believe this was started by the Coyotes’ radio announcer, correct me if I’m wrong please), and it went viral. After all, if you see enough tweets about it, it must be true. But if we think logically, then we know that Doan’s eventual price isn’t going to come near the four years and $30 million that seems to be sweeping the web.
Using market value and comparable signings, a fair assumption is that Doan gets 3-4 years and around $4.5 million per season. If he were to sign for fewer years –say two years– then he would likely get around $5 million, perhaps a little more. This is about market value. Just because an asking price is read about on Twitter, doesn’t mean it’s true.
After all, if you believe everything you read on Twitter, then you believe that Chris Kreider was a sticking point in the Nash trade.