To say Brandon Dubinsky is having an off-year would be an understatement. Outside of his boneheaded penalties of late, most focus on his anemic goal total and his offensive contribution, and with good reason. Dubinsky is making $4.2 million for the next three seasons following the 2011-2012 campaign, and he has contributed just seven goals and 26 points in 60 games this year.
While the raw point totals are troubling, what is even more troubling is his sharp decline in shots taken and shooting percentage. Dubinsky, who averages roughly 178 shots per season, is on pace for just 147 this season. That’s about half a shot less per game. While that may not seem like much, when you factor in his roughly 10% shooting success over his career, that’s three less goals just based on his career average.
This effect is compounded when you factor in Dubinsky’s current shooting percentage: a paltry 6.5% success rate. That’s 3.5% less than his career average, and almost half what it was the past two seasons. If Dubinsky were meeting his career average in shot percentage, then he would be at about 11 goals this season, and on pace for about 15 total goals. It’s not 20, but it’s definitely better than what he is currently on pace for (9).
So what does all this mean? Dubinsky isn’t shooting the puck as much as he was the past two seasons, and he also appears to be incredibly unlucky when he does get his shots on net.
The good news is that there is progression to the mean possibilities here. It may not be this season, which appears to be a lost cause for Dubinsky, but it may lead to a 2012-2013 season reminiscent of his 2010-2011 season, assuming he takes more shots of course.