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Inside Dubinsky’s stats: shooting percentage and shots

To say Brandon Dubinsky is having an off-year would be an understatement. Outside of his boneheaded penalties of late, most focus on his anemic goal total and his offensive contribution, and with good reason. Dubinsky is making $4.2 million for the next three seasons following the 2011-2012 campaign, and he has contributed just seven goals and 26 points in 60 games this year.

While the raw point totals are troubling, what is even more troubling is his sharp decline in shots taken and shooting percentage. Dubinsky, who averages roughly 178 shots per season, is on pace for just 147 this season. That’s about half a shot less per game. While that may not seem like much, when you factor in his roughly 10% shooting success over his career, that’s three less goals just based on his career average.

This effect is compounded when you factor in Dubinsky’s current shooting percentage: a paltry 6.5% success rate. That’s 3.5% less than his career average, and almost half what it was the past two seasons. If Dubinsky were meeting his career average in shot percentage, then he would be at about 11 goals this season, and on pace for about 15 total goals. It’s not 20, but it’s definitely better than what he is currently on pace for (9).

So what does all this mean? Dubinsky isn’t shooting the puck as much as he was the past two seasons, and he also appears to be incredibly unlucky when he does get his shots on net.

The good news is that there is progression to the mean possibilities here. It may not be this season, which appears to be a lost cause for Dubinsky, but it may lead to a  2012-2013 season reminiscent of his 2010-2011 season, assuming he takes more shots of course.

15 Responses to “Inside Dubinsky’s stats: shooting percentage and shots”

  1. Michael says:

    I would like to see what percentage of his shots this year are blind backhand shots along the ice as he comes out from behind the net. Last season Dubinsky used his strength to muscle into position in front of the net and take quality shots from point blank range. This year he leans on the defensemen and harmlessly throws the puck at the net along the ice.

  2. Eric says:

    I am big Dubinsky fan. He has definitely had a tough year and at 4.2 million cap hit he needs to preform at higher level. I think Torts likes Dubi, but does he always put him in the best position to succeed?

    I personally think Dubi needs to play on a line where create space for skill guys and is in front of the net. Playing with Prust and Boyle, he is playing with mirror images of his game. I think the spot for him to get to 20-25 goals is playing with Stephan and Gaborik line. He will give those guys space and get in the corners and dig the puck out for them.

    His regular season will be forgotten if he has a huge playoffs.

    • The Suit says:

      I like Dubi too and he certainly isn’t going to produce the same amount of offense playing with Boyle and Prust as he would with Gabby and Step, but in my opinion he doesn’t deserve to be on that first line and the uptick in his numbers would likely be marginal.

      That line of Arty, Step and Gabby has been great and they’ve showed some real chemistry together. I think it would send the wrong message to put Dubi in that spot who simply hasn’t earned the minutes.

      • Eric says:

        We both know that Dubi will not sniff that line this year. I disagree on the marginal up tick in his numbers. I think he would hit the 20 goal mark. He would clean up in front of the net.

        Cally plays a similar game to Dubinsky and see how his numbers are up with a guy like Haglin on that line. Speed kills and open up ice. Cally plays the game like every shift is his last and Dubi needs to play that way.

        • The Suit says:

          Agreed. Dubi needs to play that way and if he does, he will certainly earn the ice time. But in my mind Dubi hasn’t played that way and hasn’t earn that spot over Arty or Hagelin, who have been executing their roles without the dumb penalties.

          • Eric says:

            i totally agree Dubi has not earned anything to move lines. Hagelin-Richards-Cally is a great line. I am saying Dubi could open up ice for Gabby, Step and be that body that screens the goalie. Hags and Arty have earned there spots. You have to admit Arty gets lost sometimes.

  3. Bobby Tux says:

    Your analysis is all backwards. Dubinsky is not and never will ne a skill player deserving Top 6 time. The ONLY reason, he played on those lines with the Rangers was they only 4 or 5 top 6 forwards. He has zero hockey IQ and cannot create. He only scores points due to other players skilled work or a defensive lapse (st louis falling down or a shorthandd goal)

    His contract is terrible and should be traded. Or he can renegotiate a longer deal for much less money (can never happen)

    Gone at the end of the season!

    • The Suit says:

      Did you think that when he scored 24 goals last season?

    • Spozo says:

      he did lead the team in scoring last year. That’s a clever trick for someone who apprantly has ZERO hockey iq.

  4. Bobby Tux says:

    Clearly you did not read my note. He scored ONLY as a result of playing in spot that needed to be filled due to a lack of skill players. Slather mistakenly valued him as a player that has skil and can play a physical game on the 3rd line. He is completely wrong. He has no skill. Torts does not want to play him on a top line. See Hagelin playing with Richards.

    Dubi only lead the team in scoring because of mopping up the hardworking of teammates or scoring against mon playoff teams (those points accounted for 60 percent). Notice that he disappeared versus the Caps in the playoffs.

    He is great as a 3rd liner but is being paid as a Top 6 stud. He is not a top 6 stud. So his current contract will only hurt is value to any teAm. So if the Rangers can trade him for a player with a more appropriate contract it is a must.

    • The Suit says:

      This idea that Dubi only did mop up duty last year is a bit slanted. He assisted most of Cally’s goals and the two played very well together as a unit. We broke that down quite well here. The fact that you’re glossing over all of that seems a bit propitious on your end.

      Dubi has had a bad year no doubt, but a guy who has scored 20+ goals for how many seasons now is more than just a shutdown player. Is he elite? No. But I think he can be a solid secondary guy and there is nothing wrong with that.

    • IPoopOnYou says:

      Another day, another stupid rant against Dubi from Bobby Tux. What did Dubi not sign an autograph for you Bobby boy?

      Here’s a great quote from Bobby: “The reason Dubi scores is because of the great work of another player (last year Gabi assisted on most of his goals.”

      Fact check, Gabby assisted TWO of Dubi’s goals last season. This tells you all you need to know about this guy.

  5. Jude says:

    First off let me state I do like dubi. Now That’s out of the way, any ranger fan should be upset with him. Fact is because of his production or lack there of he has the worst contract on the team. No one pays anyone 4.2 mil to play a sound defensive style and if the do they are in the wrong era. Most frustrating is that, contrary to bobby tux’s comments, dubi can create offense. Watching him play you can see how much he learned from jagr early on. He is best forward we have in the corners and protecting the puck. Unfortunately he continually goes to his back hand or tries a wrap around and it never works, which by definition is insane. But still there is no doubt he has offensive prowess and has the ability to control a game. On the other hand, I hate when people like Eric suggest that if he had callys spot he would produce just as much. Cally is great for the same reasons Derek jeter is, intangibles. The things that no one sees or does, the work ethic, that blue collar mentality. Dubi has a little of it but he is no cally. Now remember dubi played the first part of the year in the top six so that notion is ridiculous. Furthermore consider this last year dubi started off great and actually led the NHL in goals at one point. I think he had something like 13 goals in the first 20 games or so. Problem with that is since that outburst, he has had 16 goals in about a full season time. Majority of which was spent receiving top 6 ice time. Bottom line is he is over paid. Put money on him being in another jersey next season, I like him but with all the contracts we will have to deal with (Stephan mcdonaugh, and mdz) plus the free agent market he is easily expendable.

    • Michael says:

      Glad someone other than me is sick of the wrap around backhands…
      I like Dubinsky. My hope is that next season he pulls a Gaborik, makes the necessary adjustments, and comes back a 25 goal scorer. Plan B is that I hope he is a casualty of the cap and is sacrificed to sign Parise

      • The Suit says:

        I think both of you had fair assessments, which is all we ask for. Good stuff.